by News Desk

Pakistan’s rice exports to China reached $122.99 million in the first seven months of 2026. Chinese customs data shows a 200 percent increase from the same period last year. Shipment volumes grew even faster. They rose 265 percent to nearly 361,000 metric tons.

The figures have drawn attention in Islamabad. They suggest Pakistan could become more than an occasional supplier to China. The country could eventually become a food-security partner as Beijing diversifies its sources of grain, meat and produce.

The growth is real. However, becoming a “major partner” is a different question.

The Numbers Behind the Optimism

Rice remains the clearest success story.

Milled long-grain rice brought in $58.10 million during the first seven months of 2026. That represents a 76 percent year-on-year increase.

A separate report tracking the first quarter of 2026 showed a 511 percent rise in exports. Industry estimates also suggest China’s market for Pakistani hybrid rice could eventually reach $1.5 billion.

That figure depends heavily on Pakistani exporters meeting China’s quality and food-safety standards.

Rice is not the only product gaining ground.

Pakistan’s sesame seed shipments to China have exceeded $400 million in recent cycles. Cotton-related exports reached $74.63 million in the first two months of 2026. That was a modest 3 percent increase.

Overall exports from Pakistan to China reached $1.874 billion in the first half of 2026. That was more than 50 percent higher than a year earlier. Sugar and bagasse shipments contributed significantly to the increase.

Corn could become the next major opportunity.

At a Beijing conference in July, researchers from both countries described agricultural cooperation as entering an “accelerated phase.” They highlighted a signed phytosanitary protocol and Chinese customs clearance through GACC for Pakistani corn shipments.

The focus goes beyond Pakistan’s existing bulk maize production. Both sides are also exploring joint ventures in higher-value varieties. These include sweet corn and baby corn. Such products could help increase farm incomes.

Pakistan’s total agro-food exports across all markets recently crossed $8 billion. The country aims to double that figure within three years.

What Would a “Major Partner” Actually Require?

This is where the numbers need context.

China accounted for about 5.73 percent of Pakistan’s agricultural exports in a recent academic analysis. The study examined trade data through 2021. The share was smaller than Pakistan’s agricultural exports to the UAE.

Even with strong growth in 2026, Pakistan remains a modest supplier compared with China’s overall food-import needs.

China imports hundreds of billions of dollars worth of food each year. These imports include grains, meat, oilseeds and processed foods.

Growth rates of 200 percent or 500 percent may look dramatic. However, they start from a small base.

Rice exports rising from $40 million to $123 million is significant progress. But that alone does not make Pakistan indispensable to China’s food security.

It shows that Pakistan has started to access a market that it previously served on a limited scale.

The institutional foundation for greater cooperation already exists.

Pakistan and China signed a Memorandum of Understanding in 2018. It established a Joint Working Group on Agriculture Cooperation.

Since then, the framework has expanded. The two countries have developed research partnerships and seed-technology exchanges.

CPEC’s second phase, launched in 2026, also gives agriculture a higher priority. Agriculture now stands among three key development sectors, alongside industry and mining.

This marks a shift from CPEC’s earlier focus on infrastructure.

However, the institutional framework has not yet produced the trade volumes needed to make Pakistan a major food-security partner like Brazil or Thailand.

The Quality Problem Standing in the Way

Pakistan’s own export strategy highlights several challenges.

The Pakistan Export Strategy 2023-2027 identifies low quality standards as a major constraint. It also points to excessive pesticide and fertilizer use, outdated production technology, poor traceability and weak hygiene practices.

A July 2026 agreement aims to address some of these problems.

The University of Agriculture Faisalabad and China’s Chengdu Institute of Standardization agreed to cooperate on agricultural standards and food-quality certification. Their goal is to improve the international competitiveness of Pakistani products.

Officials also highlighted pesticide overuse in cotton, mango and rice production. Such practices can harm the environment and affect export quality.

They called for more research into safer production methods.

This is an important part of the food-security story.

Growing trade volumes mean little if shipments fail to meet Chinese import standards. The same risk applies to almost every Pakistani agricultural export category.

Where Investment Could Close the Gap

Pakistan is also seeking Chinese agricultural investment.

The goal is not simply to increase export volumes. Pakistan wants to address the structural problems that limit its agricultural exports.

In January 2026, Pakistan’s food security minister said the government was opening more opportunities for Chinese investors. Officials expected investment across ten agricultural sectors.

Six months later, Pakistan and China agreed to expand cooperation in livestock and meat exports.

Pakistani officials highlighted the country’s large livestock base. They also pointed to its potential for high-quality halal meat production.

The sector has strong potential. However, Pakistan currently has very limited export infrastructure aimed at the Chinese market.

Pakistan has also used trade fairs to promote its agricultural products.

At SIAL China 2026 in Shanghai, Pakistani companies showcased rice, dairy products, Himalayan pink salt and other goods. The goal was to develop long-term buyer relationships and secure recurring contracts.

The key question is whether this investment will produce the infrastructure Pakistan needs.

The country requires more processing facilities, cold-chain systems and certification capacity.

At present, that outcome remains uncertain. Framework agreements and expected investments do not automatically translate into capital on the ground.

The Realistic Answer

Pakistan is not yet a major food-security partner for China.

A major partner would need to be a large, reliable and diversified supplier. China would also need to depend on that supplier at significant scale.

Pakistan is still an emerging partner.

Its exports to China are growing rapidly in several categories. However, those increases come from a relatively small base. Pakistan also continues to face quality, certification and infrastructure challenges.

Rice provides the strongest evidence of future potential.

Corn cooperation remains at an earlier stage. Livestock and meat exports are still largely aspirational.

The institutional foundation is already in place. It runs from the 2018 agriculture working group to agriculture’s priority status under CPEC 2.0.

But a foundation does not guarantee results.

Pakistan would need sustained export growth well beyond the 2026 base. It would also need to solve the quality and traceability problems identified in its own export strategy.

Most importantly, Chinese investment would need to translate into real processing, cold-chain and certification capacity.

None of these goals is impossible.

But none has been fully achieved yet.

https://thedailycpec.com/can-pakistan-become-chinas-next-major-food-security-partner/

Published Date: September 11, 2026