• Pakistan’s exports of rice plummeted 46 percent to $581 million from July till October after India removed a ban on the sale of commodity
• Falling exports pose a risk to Pakistan’s current account which economists say is expected to widen to $3 billion by June next year

KARACHI: Pakistan’s rice exports have nearly halved so far this fiscal year as the world’s fourth largest exporter appears to be losing ground to its regional peers, commodity analysts said on Monday, following India’s removal of a ban on rice exports.

Pakistan’s rice exports declined 46 percent to $581.2 million from July till October from $1.08 million during the same period last year, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

The country exported 998,063 tons of grains, which was down by 37 percent from the 1.59 million tons it had sold from July till October last year.

“Pakistan’s rice exports are falling because of the international market prices,” Muzzammil R. Chappal, chairman of the Cereal Association of Pakistan (CAP), told Arab News.

“Presently, India, Thailand and Vietnam are offering very low prices for the commodity.”

Pakistan is selling its Super Basmati grade rice at as much as $1,200 per ton, compared to India’s price cap of $900, according to Chappal, who is himself a rice trader.

In the non-Basmati categories like 5 percent broken sorted rice, both Pakistan and India have been losing ground to Vietnam and Thailand who are selling the variety at as much as $350 per ton, 6 percent lower than around $370 demanded by Islamabad and New Delhi.

“If you look at the prices comparatively, why would people buy rice from us at a higher price,” Chappal said, adding that Pakistani Basmati rice was aromatic and better in quality than Indian Basmati “but the premium matters too.”

Arab News reached out to Pakistani commerce ministry spokesperson Naveed-ul-Haq Kallu but he did not respond to a request for comment on the subject.

Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP) Chairman Malik Faisal Jahangir, Senior Vice Chairman Muhammad Javed, Vice Chairman Muhibbullah as well as REAP executive committee member Uroosa Badar and former vice chairman Ishfaq Ali were also not immediately available for a comment.

Global data and business intelligence platform Statista ranked Pakistan as the world’s fourth largest rice exporter in 2024, with 5.3 million tons of shipments India topped the list of rice producers, which collectively supplied more than 700 million tons of milled equivalent annually over the past few years.

Economists attribute Pakistan’s falling rice exports to India’s lifting of a ban on the sale of commodity in March.

“Pakistan’s rice exports are down as the neighboring country (India) has lifted restriction on its rice export which has intensified competition,” said Shankar Talreja, head of research at the Karachi-based Topline Securities brokerage firm.

India had banned the export of 100 percent broken rice in September 2022 for commercial reasons. The restriction was extended in 2023 to all other varieties because of bad weather affecting production.

In March, New Delhi allowed the export of 100 percent broken rice that is said to have triggered competition in the international market.

Talreja said falling rice exports could negatively affect the cash-strapped Pakistan’s current account balance, which analysts say is expected to post about $3 billion deficit this fiscal year ending in June 2026.

“This [decline in rice exports] is lowering our [overall] exports and as a result, the current account is posting deficit,” Talreja said.

From July till October, Pakistan’s overall exports decreased 4 percent to $10.4 billion, while the decline in food exports was a whopping 35 percent to $1.54 billion, according to official data.

Consequently, Pakistan’s current account posted $112 million deficit in October, compared to $83 million surplus in September, according to the State Bank of Pakistan.

It was recorded at $733 million in July-October, up by 256 percent year-on-year.

“The current account will be impacted by reduced exports owing to flood losses,” said Ahsan Mehanti, chief executive officer at Arif Habib Commodities Limited.

Published Date: November 25, 2025