By Sardar Sikander Shaheen

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s average temperature increase could exceed the global average with warming potentially rising by about one degree Celsius by the end of this century.

The Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination said this on Sunday.

Pakistan’s food security is facing increasing pressure from climate change as rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, floods and water shortages threaten the productivity of major crops with scientific projections warning of significant decline in wheat and rice yields in coming decades, the Climate Change Ministry said in an official statement.

It said the climate assessments indicated that Pakistan’s average temperature is rising faster than the global average, increasing risks to agriculture, which remains the backbone of the country’s economy and rural livelihoods.

The wheat yields could decline by 3.4 to 12.5 percent in semi-arid irrigated regions, including Faisalabad and Sheikhupura, while arid regions such as Hyderabad, Badin, Bahawalpur and Multan could face yield reductions ranging between 3.8 and 14.5 percent under future climate scenarios, the statement said.

Rain-fed wheat production in parts of the Potohar region, including Chakwal, could witness around 16 percent decline in productivity towards the end of the century, the statement added.

The Climate Change Ministry warned that rice production was also projected to face serious challenges with estimations suggesting that rice yields could decline by 12 to 22 percent across major rice-growing areas of Pakistan by the end of this century due to rising temperatures and changing climate conditions.

Pakistan’s agricultural vulnerability is further intensified by growing water insecurity, the ministry’s statement said.

Agriculture consumes the largest share of the country’s freshwater resources, while climate change is increasing crop water requirements through higher evaporation and heat stress, the statement added.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

Published Date: July 20, 2026