While world rice production is expected to fall next season, Africa could record growth as governments support local production and farmers adopt improved seed varieties.

AFRICA – Africa is expected to be the only region to increase rice production in the 2026/27 season as global output declines, according to the latest Food Outlook report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

The UN agency forecasts global rice production at 552.4 million tonnes in 2026/27, down 1.63% from the 561.6 million tonnes recorded a year earlier. FAO attributes the decline mainly to weather risks linked to El Niño and ongoing profitability challenges facing producers in several regions.

Asia, which accounts for nearly 90% of global rice supply, is expected to see production fall by 1.33% to 495.9 million tonnes. Despite the weaker outlook, FAO noted that support measures could help limit losses in the region.

“In Asia, however, a combination of good water availability for irrigation, existing support programmes and enhanced input support measures could cushion the declines, maintaining abundant overall production,” FAO stated in the report published on June 18.

Outside Asia, North and South America are also expected to record lower production levels. FAO expects harvests in Central America and Europe to remain largely unchanged.

In contrast, Africa’s rice production is forecast to grow by 1.6% to 29.3 million tonnes, adding about 500,000 tonnes to the continent’s output. FAO links this growth to food self-sufficiency programmes adopted by several governments and wider use of high-yielding, water-efficient rice varieties.

Madagascar and Tanzania are expected to lead the increase as farmers expand planted areas in response to favourable prices. In Egypt, greater use of improved seed varieties could also support stronger harvests.

West Africa is likely to contribute to the overall growth trend. FAO expects positive results across much of the sub-region. However, producers in Ghana and Nigeria continue to face profitability and marketing challenges that may limit gains. In Benin, Côte d’Ivoire and Togo, lower-than-normal rainfall forecasts could affect production growth.

The projected increase offers a positive sign for Africa’s rice sector at a time when uncertainty continues to affect global agricultural markets. Even so, demand for rice continues to rise across the continent due to population growth and urban expansion.

Despite stronger local production, Africa remains heavily reliant on imports. Between 2022 and 2024, the continent imported an average of 18.6 million tonnes of rice annually to meet domestic demand. FAO has not yet released its import forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year.

Published Date: June 24, 2026