• A new trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan requires Japan to import a larger share of American rice under its existing tariff-free WTO quota.
• The deal threatens to cut Thailand’s annual rice export quota to Japan from 300,000 tonnes to less than 100,000 tonnes, a reduction of over two-thirds.
• Japan agreed to the rice concession in exchange for the U.S. reducing proposed tariffs on Japanese industrial goods, such as automobiles.
• In response, Thailand’s Commerce Ministry is urgently trying to negotiate with Japan to secure its previous 300,000-tonne quota.

Thailand’s rice export sector is expressing alarm after a new trade agreement between the United States and Japan was sealed, potentially cutting Thailand’s rice quota to Japan by more than two-thirds.

The deal, struck on 22nd July 2025, sees Japan commit to importing a larger share of rice from the US under the existing World Trade Organisation (WTO) “minimum access” framework.

This quota allows for approximately 770,000 tonnes of tariff-free rice imports annually.

Historically, Japan split this quota, purchasing around 300,000 tonnes each from Thailand and the US.

The US reportedly secured the rice concession in exchange for reducing reciprocal tariffs on Japanese industrial goods, such as automobiles, from a proposed 25% down to 15%. Japan appears to have accepted the rice concession to protect its highly competitive industrial exports.

Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun announced on 1st October that the Ministry was urgently negotiating a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Japan to lock in Thailand’s current 300,000-tonne quota.

This push comes in response to reports that Japan is required to increase rice imports from the US by 75%, a move that would directly squeeze Thailand’s market share.

Chukiat Opaswong, Honorary ยresident of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, told Thansettakij that securing the previous quota would be “difficult.”

“If the US demands 75% of that 770,000-tonne quota, Thailand’s allocation could fall from 300,000 tonnes to less than 100,000 tonnes next year,” Chukiat stated.

He explained that Japan is obligated to honour its commitment to the US to protect its domestic manufacturing export capability.

Official figures show that Thai rice exports to Japan have already seen a sharp decline. In the first seven months of 2568 (Jan-Jul), volume dropped by 19% and value by 42% compared to the same period the previous year.

Published Date: October 16, 2025