But that doesn’t present challenges for importers such as South Africa.

Wandile Sihlobo

The International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts the 2026-27 global rice production at a record 543 million tonnes, down 1% from the previous season. Still, this is well above the average global rice production.

The decent harvest is mainly in India, the world-leading producer, China, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines, amongst others.

As a result of this expected mild decline in production, the stocks could also fall by 1% year-on-year, estimated at 195 million tonnes, which is also well above the long-term average levels.

I generally pay close attention to these rice production issues because, in South Africa, while a net exporter of agricultural products, rice is one of the products we are not endowed with. We rely 100% on imports.

We consume just over a million tonnes of rice annually. We can’t produce rice because of our relatively dry environment; we are generally a semi-arid country.

Thailand is the leading rice supplier to South Africa, accounting, on average, for 74% of South Africa’s rice import volume over the past five years.

India is the second-largest rice supplier to South Africa, with an average annual share of 21% over the past five years.

Other rice suppliers to South Africa include Pakistan, Vietnam, China, Australia, the US, and Brazil.

Therefore, this reliance on imports means we should constantly monitor global price developments. Ultimately, while the harvest may fall in the 2026-27 season, it remains at decent levels, which are well above the average. Thus, we don’t expect a major price decline.

Published Date: July 27, 2026