Wandile Sihlobo

These are still early days for us to be certain about the 2026-27 global agricultural conditions. The season is starting in the Northern Hemisphere, and should start from October 2026 in the Southern Hemisphere.

But it was encouraging to see that the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts the 2026-17 global rice production at a record 548 million tonnes, up 1% from the previous season. They see ample harvests in India. Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan, China, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and the Philippines.

As a result of this increase in production, the stocks are up 2% year-on-year, estimated at 197 million tonnes.

I generally pay close attention to these rice production issues because, in South Africa, while a net exporter of agricultural products, rice is one of the products we are not endowed with. We rely 100% on imports.

We consume just over a million tonnes of rice annually. We can’t produce rice because of our relatively dry environment; we are generally a semi-arid country.

Thailand is the leading rice supplier to South Africa, accounting, on average, for 74% of South Africa’s rice import volume over the past five years. India is the second-largest rice supplier to South Africa, with an average annual share of 21% over the past five years.

Other rice suppliers to South Africa include Pakistan, Vietnam, China, Australia, the US, and Brazil.

Therefore, this reliance on imports means we should constantly monitor global price developments.

Fortunately, this time around, the global rice prices remain under pressure and may remain at these levels in the coming months because of the expected recovery in supplies.

Of course, there are fears of El Niño in the current season, and this weather phenomenon may have varying impacts in certain countries. Thus, as the season continues, paying attention to the monthly production revisions is important.

If the harvest indeed turns out as expected, then the importing countries, such as South Africa, stand to benefit from the lower global rice prices. This will bode well for the consumer food price inflation.

Published Date: April 20, 2026