Return of Indian rice to the world market shakes up competition

Thailand’s rice exports in the first quarter of 2025 are estimated to drop by 33 per cent to 2 million tonnes, from 3 million tonnes in the same period of last year, the Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) said on Friday.

From January 1 to February 24, Thailand exported a total of 1.1. million tonnes of rice, down 32% from 1.6 million tonnes in the same period last year, TREA President Charoen Laothamatas said.

He attributed the lower export estimate to increasing competition this year, especially from India, which has just resumed exports after a prolonged ban to increase domestic stocks.

The association estimates total rice exports in 2025 to be 7.5 million tonnes, down from 9.95 million tonnes recorded last year, which was the highest in several years.

“Thai rice is now the most expensive among other competitors, and the fluctuation in exchange rate will only worsen exports,” he said, while calling on the government to use appropriate measures to curb the fluctuations of the baht.

“Furthermore, if the United States decides to raise the tariff on rice imports from Thailand by 10%, our price would go up by US$100 per tonne, making it harder to compete with others,” he said.

Charoen explained that Thai rice was more expensive as Thai farmers incur higher production costs, adding that pricing interference measures would not fix the problem.

“Authorities should focus on improving production efficiency of Thai farmers so they can compete in the long term, particularly by managing production costs and developing strains that yield higher output per rai,” he said.

As of February, the price of 5% white rice from Thailand in the global market was $415-419 per tonne, versus $406-410 from India, $393-397 from Vietnam, and $382-386 per tonne from Pakistan.

The United States Department of Agriculture estimates that India will be the largest rice exporter in 2025 at 22.5 million tonnes, up 26.4% year on year, while Thailand and Vietnam will export 7.5 million tonnes each, down 24.2% and 17% year on year, respectively. In fourth place will be Pakistan, which is estimated to export 5.3 million tonnes, down 18.2% year on year.

Published Date: March 1, 2025