A report by Pranee Muenphangwaree reveals that while global rice stocks are high, Thailand’s export prices are on the rise

Global rice prices are continuing to fall, according to a report by Pranee Muenphangwaree for Krungthep Turakij, as a worldwide oversupply and record-high production levels flood the market.

The US Department of Agriculture’s latest Rice Outlook report forecasts a record-breaking global production of 541.1 million tonnes for 2025/26. This has contributed to a global rice supply of 729.5 million tonnes, the highest on record and the third consecutive year of growth.

The oversupply has driven down prices in most major rice-exporting countries. For example, in the week of 9 September 2025, U.S. rice prices for the Latin American market fell by $45 per tonne, while Vietnam’s rice prices dropped by $18 after the Philippines implemented a 60-day import ban.

However, Thailand is bucking the trend. The price of Thai 100% grade B paddy rice has risen to $372 per tonne. The Thai Rice Exporters Association confirms that all Thai rice export prices (FOB) are increasing. 

Thai Hom Mali fragrant rice is now priced at $1,148 per tonne, a jump from $1,109 just two weeks prior. Similarly, white rice and parboiled rice have seen price increases.

The main reason for this increase is the continuous appreciation of the Thai baht against the US dollar. On 20 August 2025, the exchange rate was 32.7 baht per dollar, but by 17 September 2025, it had strengthened to 31.8 baht per dollar.

Despite the positive export figures, the situation for Thai farmers is less encouraging.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, the price of paddy rice sold by farmers nationwide has been falling.

The average price for Jasmine paddy rice from the main crop was 14,817 baht per tonne for the week of 8-14 September 2025, down from 14,825 baht the previous week.

The Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) has warned that this trend could continue. It predicts that a huge volume of Thailand’s 2025/26 main rice crop—17.375 million tonnes of paddy rice—will enter the market in November 2025, presenting a significant challenge for the country’s rice management.

Published Date: September 22, 2025