By Arvin Donley

BANGKOK, THAILAND ­— Thailand’s rice production for the 2026-27 marketing year is forecast 2% lower than the previous year, as tighter water supplies and an emerging El Niño reduce off-season planting, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

The agency forecasts a crop of 20.3 million tonnes, about 400,000 tonnes smaller than in the 2025-26 season.

“The decline is mostly in the offseason crop, with harvested area contracting from 2.07 million hectares to 1.93 million hectares, while main-crop area is estimated to remain around 8.9 million hectares,” the FAS said. “As of Aug. 15, the four large Chao Phraya reservoirs held 55% of capacity with only 39% usable, about 9% below a year earlier, and the Thai Meteorological Department forecasts below-normal rainfall as an El Niño pattern emerges.”

Exports are projected to be unchanged year on year at 7.3 million tonnes, the lowest since 2021 under a strong Thai baht and competition with India and Vietnam, the FAS noted.

Meanwhile, the FAS sees ending stocks climbing to a five-year high of 4.6 million tonnes, absorbed largely by the government’s expanded 3-million-tonne paddy absorption program.Thailand is perennially a top-10 rice producer and among the top five in rice exporters.

Published Date: September 11, 2026