By Muskan Agarwal and Ayushi Baloni

HIGHLIGHTS:

• Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand lead China’s rice imports
• Indian shipments surge despite ethanol competition
• Cambodia’s fragrant rice exports to China jump in 2025

China’s rising rice imports are set to create fresh opportunities for Asian exporters, as weak global prices and attractive price gaps are driving Beijing’s overseas buying spree, trade sources told Platts, Feb. 4.

Despite strong domestic output, China is expected to ramp up overseas purchases at an unprecedented pace.

China imported 2.74 million metric tons of rice, a 119% jump year over year, during January to November 2025, a USDA report said.

“China is going to be the key driver for the Far East this year. They buy when prices are low. Prices in Asia are keeping low, so they will make purchases,” a UK-based broker said.

Platts Myanmar’s 5% broken white rice prices are the most competitive among the Asian origins and were assessed at $345/mt FOB FCL Jan. 30, down $99/mt, year over year. Prices for other Asian origins also declined significantly year over year. Platts assessed Vietnam 5% broken WR at $355/mt FOB, a decrease of $44/mt year over year, Thailand’s 5% broken WR declined $40/mt to $390/mt FOB, India’s 5% broken WR was down $61/mt at $345/mt FOB, and Pakistan’s 5% broken WR dropped $47/mt to $362/mt FOB on Feb. 4.

Regional suppliers to retain edge

Myanmar, Vietnam, and Thailand are well-positioned to maintain their lead in supplying China, driven by competitive pricing and strong alignment with Chinese preferences for specific rice varieties.

“China is currently the largest importer of Myanmar rice and will likely remain the largest importer in 2026,” a Yangon-based exporter said, noting China’s preference for medium-grain and hard-cooking broken rice. The exporter emphasized that Myanmar is likely to retain its market share unless a significant price gap emerges.

China imported 1.04 million mt of rice from Myanmar in 2025, a significant 85% increase from the previous year, as per S&P Global Energy CERA data.

Myanmar exporters said China can freely import broken rice, but other grades need quotas. With new quotas for 2026, sellers are hopeful for increased demand beyond broken rice.

An Indian trader dealing in Myanmar rice said, “China is going to buy Thukha rice from Myanmar.”

Platts assessed Myanmar’s B1 and B2 broken rice prices at $289/mt FOB FCL on Jan. 30, down of $15/mt year over year. It is currently trading at a $4/mt discount to Indian rice, $32/mt lower than Pakistani rice, $21/mt below Vietnamese rice, and $64/mt cheaper than Thai rice.

Meanwhile, Vietnamese sellers said the country will remain a key rice supplier to China.

A Vietnamese trader said, “China always buys reasonable quantities from Vietnam. Much of the upcoming purchases will depend on the pricing of the winter-spring crop going forward (post Tet holidays).”

China imported 0.72 million mt of rice in 2025 from Vietnam, making it the second-largest supplier, as per CERA data.

“Chinese demand will be regular for Vietnam. It will keep buying,” said the Indian trader, citing Vietnam’s rice quality and shipment periods as closely aligning with China’s preferences. The trader added that China is expected to ask for more Vietnamese glutinous broken rice during the current harvest season.

Similarly, market participants in Thailand also remained optimistic about sales to China in 2026.

“They buy, and will buy this year too, but only when they agree on the price,” said a Thai exporter.

Thailand supplied nearly 679,793 mt of rice to China in 2025, marking a 57% increase from the previous year, CERA data showed.

India, Pakistan eye share

Indian and Pakistani exporters said competitive pricing will be key to capturing additional Chinese demand in 2026, with both origins seeking to expand their foothold in the world’s largest rice import market.

Indian sources indicated that Indian broken rice is a primary variety exported to China. “If Indian ethanol and DDGS distillers slow down, China may have an opportunity to buy Indian broken rice,” the Indian trader said, adding that current Indian prices may be high for China compared to competitors like Myanmar.

China imported 274,794 mt of rice from India in 2025, a 350% increase over 2024, according to CERA data.

Pakistani exporters said competitiveness and quality will determine their success in the Chinese market.

“Chinese demand remains strong and is expected to stay at current levels. Depending on the level of polish, we can secure an additional $2-$5 premium, with higher polish rice fetching a better price than lower polish grades,” said one Karachi-based exporter.

Pakistani exporters noted that China primary imports 5% broken WR and 100% broken WR.

China imported 157,737 mt from Pakistan in 2025, a 0.7% year-over-year decrease, CERA data showed.

Cambodian fragrant rice demand

Cambodia has also benefited from China’s import boom, with exports rising 96% year over year to 231,125 mt in 2025, Cambodia Rice Federation data showed.

A Phnom Penh exporter said, “China will buy more from Cambodia this year, around 300,000 mt,” with demand focused on competitively priced fragrant rice during peak harvests.

Chinese rice imports are expected to rise to 3 million mt in trade year 2025-26 (Jan-Dec 2026), a 3.44% increase year-over-year, according to USDA data.

With international soft rice prices ahead, China’s price-sensitive buying is set to reshape trade dynamics and intensify competition among leading exporters in 2026.

Published Date: February 5, 2026