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Vietnam needs to secure rice supplies and strengthen reserves ahead of an El Niño forecast to become strong to very strong from now to January 2027.

The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology under the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment has issued an updated warning that El Niño is forecast to strengthen to strong or very strong levels from August 2026 to January 2027. Its most significant impacts are expected to include drought, water shortages for agricultural production and earlier-than-usual saltwater intrusion.

According to authorities’ estimates, around 350,000 hectares of rice, or more than 20 percent of the rice-growing area in southern Vietnam, are at risk of being affected. The potential impact calls for careful consideration of rice export policies in the period ahead.

Should domestic production be disrupted, ensuring adequate rice supplies for local consumption, keeping food prices stable and containing CPI inflation must take precedence. Rice should be earmarked for export only after domestic food security and sufficient reserves have been secured, especially when international demand and prices are favorable.

Lessons from previous years

Experience from previous years offers valuable lessons in rice market management. In 2020, amid the Covid-19 pandemic, drought and saltwater intrusion in the Southern region, as well as concerns over food shortages, Vietnam introduced a rice export quota.

However, after reviewing domestic supplies and determining that 13.54 million tons of paddy remained available, equivalent to around 6.5-6.7 million tons of rice, the Government adjusted its policy and allowed rice exports without quotas.

Vietnam’s rice exports reached 8.13 million tons worth US$4.67 billion in 2023, followed by approximately 9.18 million tons worth US$5.75 billion in 2024.

Preparing supplies ahead of market changes

The 2026-2027 outlook further highlights the importance of forecasting market conditions in advance. Reuters reported on August 11 that global grain inventories were currently near record levels, helping reduce the risk of severe shortages even if El Niño becomes strong. However, food supplies and prices could still fluctuate depending on the severity of weather impacts in different regions.

Against this backdrop, the State could support businesses in purchasing and temporarily stockpiling rice while supplies remain favorable, while investing in storage and post-harvest infrastructure, particularly drying and preservation facilities, to strengthen supply security.

On the production side, authorities could adjust the planting schedule for the third rice crop and convert some rice-growing areas to short-cycle crops that are more resilient to drought and saltwater intrusion.

Most importantly, securing rice supplies early would give policymakers greater flexibility to respond to market fluctuations. If domestic supplies are adequate, reserves are sufficient and local prices remain stable, rice exports could then be adjusted in line with international demand and price trends.

This approach would also help businesses avoid a recurring cycle of waiting for prices to rise before purchasing rice, only to see prices fall once supplies have been secured. At the same time, it would give policymakers greater room to balance domestic food security with export opportunities.

By Phuc Van- Translated by Huyen Huong

Published Date: August 24, 2026