Thai paddy prices edge higher as rice exporters expect demand to recover if Middle East tensions ease and freight costs fall

Thai paddy prices show signs of recovery

Thai paddy prices are sending a positive signal as global buyers move to secure stocks, while exporters watch whether easing tensions in the Middle East could help revive demand in the second half of 2026.

Data from the Thai Rice Mills Association showed that the price of white paddy rice with 15% moisture in Ayutthaya stood at 8,100-8,500 baht per tonne on May 15, up from 7,700-8,100 baht per tonne on May 8.

The price of Hom Mali paddy rice in Ubon Ratchathani remained unchanged at 17,000-18,000 baht per tonne.

Exporters expect recovery if Middle East tensions ease

Mohit Agarwal, head of agri business for Olam Agri in Vietnam and Thailand, told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, that Thai rice exports could recover in the second half of 2026 if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ease.

However, he said the price of Thai 5% broken white rice was likely to move within a narrow range because domestic stocks were not strong enough to drive a major price increase.

“I expect that if prices rise, it would be by around US$10-15, or if they fall, by around US$20, but not beyond that. I do not see prices moving by US$50, at least for now,” Agarwal said, referring to Thai 5% broken white rice.

Data from the Thai Rice Exporters Association showed Thai 5% broken white rice FOB prices at US$429 per tonne on May 13, up from US$408 on May 6.

Rising costs push export offers higher

Higher fertiliser, transport and packaging costs have also contributed to firmer export offers.

Thailand’s production costs rose by around 4-5% during the March-April harvest season, while Vietnam faced a sharper increase in costs because its winter-spring crop coincided with higher fertiliser prices.

Data from the US Department of Agriculture showed that Thailand’s rice exports fell 25% year on year in the January-April period.

Agarwal said the decline was largely linked to Iraq, which normally buys around 900,000 to 1 million tonnes of rice a year, but such demand had not yet translated into orders.

He said the decline was more a matter of timing than a structural loss of competitiveness, as Thailand still maintained a distinctive selling point through the value and quality of its rice.

Thai exports could recover later this year if tensions in the Middle East ease, helping reduce freight and packaging costs while stimulating demand from key markets.

Philippine rice imports expected to remain strong

Agarwal said the Philippines was unlikely to significantly reduce rice imports, despite several policy changes and government efforts to control domestic rice prices.

Vietnam exported around 1.2 million tonnes of rice to the Philippines by April, while imports are expected to remain at least around 300,000 tonnes per month, or 3.6 million tonnes annually, in line with earlier government indications.

The Philippines remained the largest buyer of Vietnamese rice in 2026, importing 1.19 million tonnes in the first four months, down 20% from a year earlier, according to Vietnam Customs data.

Rice traders also believe the Philippines could increase imports to 5.5-6 million tonnes if El Niño significantly affects domestic production.

India’s pricing pressures Thai rice

Agarwal said India’s aggressive pricing continued to put pressure on Thailand, particularly in the white rice and parboiled rice markets.

However, Thailand still has a loyal customer base that values the distinctive quality of Thai rice.

When Thai rice commands a premium of around US$50 per tonne or more, some buyers may switch to Indian rice, especially in price-sensitive African markets.

Even so, Thailand remains competitive in markets where consumers place importance on grain characteristics and quality.

Global output forecast to fall in 2026/27

According to the Rice Outlook for May 2026, global rice production in 2026/27 is projected at 537.8 million tonnes on a milled basis, down 5 million tonnes from the previous year.

India is expected to remain the world’s largest producer, ahead of China for a third consecutive year.

Myanmar’s rice output is forecast to decline due to smaller planted areas, lower yields and higher input costs, including fertiliser and diesel.

Global rice trade set to hit record high in 2027

Global rice trade is forecast to reach another record high in 2027.

World rice exports in calendar year 2027 are expected to increase by 1.8 million tonnes to 63.1 million tonnes, the highest level on record and the third consecutive year of growth.

India is expected to remain the leading exporter, with shipments of 25 million tonnes, or 40% of global trade, supported by large exportable supplies and competitive prices.

Vietnam and Thailand, the world’s second- and third-largest rice exporters, are also expected to ship more rice due to stronger demand from key markets in Africa and Southeast Asia.

Cambodia’s exports are also forecast to increase despite lower output, mainly through shipments to Vietnam.

Imports also forecast to reach new peak

Global rice imports in 2027 are forecast to rise by 1.7 million tonnes to a record 60.2 million tonnes, marking a third year of consecutive growth.

The increase is expected to be driven mainly by stronger demand from Africa and Southeast Asia.

Bangladesh is projected to record the largest year-on-year increase, largely because of an expected decline in domestic rice production.

Imports by the Philippines, the world’s largest rice importer, are forecast to rise to another record high, supported by population growth and the importance of rice as a staple food.

Vietnam, the second-largest rice importer, is also expected to see imports reach a record high, mainly due to higher purchases of paddy rice from Cambodia.

Published Date: May 21, 2026