Pakistan and India basmati exports seen falling from 6.85 million tons to 6.4–6.5 million tons; fertiliser and energy disruptions threaten kharif sowing across Asia.

By Monitoring Desk

Agriculture and basmati rice trade are facing disruptions following the recent Gulf conflict, with supply chain issues in energy and agro-inputs raising concerns over crop cycles across South Asia, industry stakeholders said.

Global basmati exports by India and Pakistan, which reached 6.85 million tons in FY2024-25, are now projected to decline to around 6.4–6.5 million tons. The drop is mainly linked to a 9% decline in Indian exports due to shipment delays, higher freight and insurance costs, and payment constraints in West Asian markets.

Analysts indicated that exports may partially recover in the first half of FY2026-27 if oil trade resumes, which could help ease payment bottlenecks with Iran.

Beyond trade, the conflict is also affecting agricultural production. Rice output across major producing countries, including India, Bangladesh and Thailand, is projected to fall by 11 to 13 million tons, equivalent to about 2.5–3% of global production estimated at 560 million tons.

Experts said the next few weeks are critical for kharif sowing, as timely access to inputs will determine crop yields. Disruptions in fertiliser, liquefied natural gas and diesel supplies through the Strait of Hormuz remain a key risk.

Fertiliser supply is under pressure due to its dependence on hydrocarbons. Urea production requires natural gas for hydrogen and is closely linked to LNG availability. Around 70% of global urea or its feedstock LNG is sourced from the Gulf region.

Countries including India, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and several African nations rely on imports of urea or LNG from the Middle East, making them vulnerable to supply disruptions.

Improved crop prospects in China, Indonesia and Pakistan may provide some offset, but analysts said the expected production gap remains significant.

Published Date: April 9, 2026