Story by Suttinee Yuvejwattana.

(Bloomberg) — Thailand is aiming to increase exports of pet food, rice and other processed food products to the US at the cost of Chinese shippers who are shut out of the prized market by a tariff wall.

The Southeast Asian country expects to increase its market share in segments like dog and cat food, rice and processed mackerel where it’s already the leading supplier to the US, while seizing the opportunity to substitute Chinese products such as noodles, frozen seafood, soy sauce and bamboo shoots, Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, director general of Thailand’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office, said in a statement Monday.

Still, Thailand’s ability to retain US market share in food products faces the threat of a 36% tariff and possible rerouting of Chinese products through countries facing lower US levies, Poonpong said. The government is taking both short- and long-term measures to deal with the uncertainties stemming from US-China trade tensions, he said. 

Thailand’s trade-reliant economy is seen among the hardest hit in Asia by the worsening trade war, with the International Monetary Fund last week cutting the country’s growth forecast this year to 1.8% from 2.9%. With no dates set for trade talks with Washington, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s administration has said the higher-than-expected tariff to its largest export market could shave off at least one percentage point off growth this year if it’s not negotiated down. 

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The prime minister has ordered officials to tighten the criteria for the issuance of certificates of origin to address a key US concern that countries slapped with higher levies could reroute products through Thailand. Paetongtarn has also offered to step up imports of US commodities like corn, natural gas and ethane, besides reducing import duties and removing non-tariff barriers to secure a deal with the US. 

Thailand’s exports to the US more than doubled to $55 billion in 2024 from $26.6 billion at the beginning of President Donald Trump’s first term. Shipments of agricultural products to the US were worth $4.8 billion last year, according to the Thai Commerce Ministry.

“It’s also challenging for Thailand to maintain its share in the US market as the nation is facing a hefty 36% tariff,” Poonpong said in the statement.

Thailand will also need to brace for an influx of products where China is a leading exporter to the US, though it could mean lower costs of raw materials for some local businesses, Poonpong said. China may dump more agricultural products such as garlic, dried chili, green tea and preserved vegetables in Thailand, he said.

Published Date: April 29, 2025