The USDA has made an upward revision to the 2023 cotton crop guess, while cutting the outlook for rice.

As of November 1^st, this year’s upland cotton crop is pegged at 12.736 million bales, 275,000 more than October thanks to a higher average yield of 776 pounds per acre on harvested area of 7.88 million acres, but 1.262 million less than 2022, largely due to a year-to-year drop in yield caused by drought in Texas. In 2022, upland cotton totaled 13.998 million bales with an average yield of 942 pounds per acre on harvested area of 7.132 million acres.

Cotton ginnings are running behind the year ago pace due to that smaller crop.

Rice production is estimated at 219.663 million hundredweight, a decrease of 845,000 on the month with the yield now seen at 7,707 pounds per acre, but an increase of 59.295 million on the year thanks to a better than a year ago yield and larger acreage totals, including harvested area of 2.85 million acres. Last year, rice totaled 160.368 million hundredweight with an average yield of 7,383 pounds per acre on harvested area of 2.172 million acres.

U.S. cotton ending stocks were above a month ago on that higher production projection and lower domestic use, while rice stocks were down following that downgrade in production.

The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is scheduled for December 8^th, but that will depend on whether or not the federal government is able to avoid a shutdown.

Comparisons for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: Cotton: 1.3 million bales, compared to 1.548 million in 2022; Average Yield: 1,236 pounds per acre, compared to 1,188 a month ago and 1,179 a year ago; Harvested Area: 505,000 acres, compared to 630,000 last year

Rice: TOP: 106.531 million hundredweight, compared to 80.34 million in 2022; Average Yield: 7,550 pounds per acre, compared to 7,550 a month ago and 7,410 a year ago; Harvested Area: 1.411 million acres, compared to 1.084 million last year

Kansas: Cotton: 165,000 bales, compared to 166,000 in 2022; Average Yield: 900 pounds per acre, compared to 900 a month ago and 577 a year ago; Harvested Area: 88,000 acres, compared to 138,000 last year

Missouri: Cotton: 845,000 bales, compared to 878,000 in 2022; Average Yield: 1,229 pounds per acre, compared to 989 a month ago and 1,240 a year ago; Harvested Area: 330,000 acres, compared to 340,000 last year

Rice: 15.225 million hundredweight, compared to 11.832 million in 2022; Average Yield: 7,500 pounds per acre, compared to 7,900 a month ago and 7,940 a year ago; Harvested Area: 203,000 acres, compared to 149,000 last year

Tennessee: Cotton: 640,000 bales, compared to 713,000 in 2022; Average Yield: Record 1,182 pounds per acre, compared to 1,071 a month ago and 1,053 a year ago; Harvested Area: 260,000 acres, compared to 325,000 last year

Published Date: November 9, 2023