By Crystal Futrell

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI, US — While wheat, corn and soybean markets have commanded much of the commodities spotlight in recent weeks, buoyed by geopolitical tensions and Chinese demand, the US rice market has quietly staged a strong rally of its own, supported by tightening supply-and-demand dynamics.

The September CME rough rice future jumped to contract highs on July 22, gaining 36% since the start of 2026. Much of the strength in futures has emerged during the growing season, despite data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicating that the US rice crop has generally been rated in good-to-excellent condition. But the driver isn’t the quality of the crop; it’s the size. 

About 29% fewer US acres were planted to long-grain rice this year, which is the most consumed rice grain in the United States. Arkansas, the top-producing long-grain rice state, planted about 851,000 acres of rice in 2026, down 597,000 acres, or 41%, from 1.448 million acres in 2025, according to USDA acreage estimates. It is the lowest area planted to this variety in about 50 years.

High-priced inputs, competition from lower-priced foreign supplies as well as competition from value-added domestic crops like soybeans has led to a siphoning of acres away from a grain that is considered to be the primary staple food for more than half the world’s population.

“Everyone is freaked out that we’re going to run out of rice,” one miller said. “I say we never run out because the market does its job where if the price of domestic rice gets high enough then people will stop using it. But people are still going to eat rice, and it’s got to come from somewhere, so we’ll keep going and will probably be importing some rice by the end of next year.”

Despite its diminishing agricultural status in the United States, rice still is an important food for the global population. The USDA in a recent report projected 2026-27 global rice consumption at a record 541.4 million tonnes, up from 538 million tonnes forecast for the 2025-26 season.US consumption has remained strong as well. On average, about 27 pounds of rice are annually consumed per person in the United States. While this average pales in comparison to other products, like wheat flour, which currently has an annual US consumption rate of 131 pounds per person, rice consumption has been trending slightly higher over the last 20 years. 

Published Date: August 4, 2026