Kedia Advisory

Kedia Advisory – The 2025/26 U.S. rice outlook reflects lower supplies, reduced exports, and slightly higher ending stocks. Long-grain imports are revised lower, while total rice exports are cut to 87.0 million cwt due to weaker long-grain shipments. Ending stocks rise to 50.3 million cwt. The season-average farm price increases to $12.10 per cwt, supported by stronger medium- and short-grain prices. Globally, rice supplies edge higher on increased production in Cambodia, while consumption and trade decline slightly. World ending stocks rise to 190.9 million tons, reflecting higher inventories in Thailand, Burma, and Cambodia.

Key Highlights:

• U.S. rice exports reduced to 87.0 million cwt
• Ending stocks rise to 50.3 million cwt
• Farm price raised to $12.10 per cwt
• Global production slightly higher on Cambodia increase
• World ending stocks climb to 190.9 million tons

The 2025/26 U.S. rice balance sheet reflects modest adjustments this month, with lower supplies, reduced exports, and a slight increase in ending stocks. Total supplies are trimmed primarily due to a 1.0 million cwt reduction in long-grain imports, now forecast at 41.0 million cwt. Import volumes are running behind last year’s record pace, prompting the downward revision.

On the demand side, total U.S. rice exports are lowered by 2.0 million cwt to 87.0 million cwt. The decline is largely driven by reduced long-grain export expectations, though this is partially offset by improved prospects for medium- and short-grain shipments. With exports falling more than the reduction in imports, ending stocks are projected 1.0 million cwt higher at 50.3 million cwt.

Despite higher stocks, price prospects have improved. The all-rice season-average farm price is raised by $0.30 to $12.10 per cwt. The increase reflects stronger price forecasts for California and other states’ medium- and short-grain varieties, which continue to support overall price levels.

Globally, the rice outlook shows only marginal changes. Total supplies are revised up slightly by 0.2 million tons to 732.6 million tons, mainly due to higher production in Cambodia. However, global consumption is reduced by 0.3 million tons to 541.7 million, largely on lower demand expectations in Burma.

World trade is also forecast lower by 0.2 million tons to 63.3 million tons, primarily reflecting weaker exports from Thailand amid relatively higher prices compared to regional competitors. Global ending stocks increase by 0.5 million tons to 190.9 million, supported by higher inventories in Thailand, Burma, and Cambodia.

While U.S. exports soften, firmer prices and rising global stocks suggest balanced rice fundamentals, with only modest shifts in the broader 2025/26 outlook.

Written By: Kedia Advisory

Published Date: February 11, 2026