Kedia Advisory – The USDA’s August 2025 report projects higher U.S. rice supplies, domestic use, and exports for the 2025/26 season, with slightly lower ending stocks. Production is forecast at 208.5 million cwt, as higher harvested area offsets a reduced yield. Imports are lowered to 49.7 million cwt, while exports rise to 97.0 million cwt, driven by strong medium- and short-grain sales to Japan. The all rice season-average farm price is up to $14.20 per cwt. Globally, rice supplies are marginally lower, consumption and trade are slightly higher, and ending stocks are reduced, reflecting tighter balances in key exporters like Nigeria, Burma, and the Philippines.

Key Highlights:

U.S. rice production forecast rises to 208.5 million cwt.Exports raised by 4.0 million cwt to 97.0 million.Imports lowered to 49.7 million cwt on strong domestic supply.Season-average farm price increased to $14.20 per cwt. Global ending stocks drop to 186.7 million tons. 

U.S. rice prices are expected to see firm support in the 2025/26 season as the USDA projects higher supplies, stronger exports, and increased domestic use. The latest report pegs U.S. production at 208.5 million cwt, up from earlier estimates as larger harvested area offsets a slightly lower yield of 7,636 pounds per acre. Long-grain output is forecast at 154.5 million cwt, while medium- and short-grain combined production is set at 54.0 million cwt.

On the demand side, U.S. rice exports are projected to reach 97.0 million cwt, an increase of 4.0 million from the prior forecast, supported by robust medium- and short-grain sales to Japan. Domestic and residual use is raised to 167.0 million cwt, reflecting the availability of higher supplies. Imports are trimmed by 1.0 million cwt to 49.7 million, although they still remain at a record level. Ending stocks are expected at 44.6 million cwt, 12% lower than last year. The season-average farm price is lifted by $0.20 to $14.20 per cwt, mainly on gains in California’s medium- and short-grain market.

Globally, the 2025/26 rice balance sheet shows slightly tighter conditions. World supplies are reduced to 728.7 million tons, primarily due to lower beginning stocks in Nigeria, Burma, and Thailand. Consumption is raised to a record 542.0 million tons, while trade edges higher to 62.1 million tons, boosted by exports from Burma and the U.S. World ending stocks are lowered to 186.7 million tons, with notable declines in Nigeria, the Philippines, and Burma.

In conclusion, overall, the combination of stronger U.S. exports, firm domestic demand, and tighter global stocks points toward a supportive price outlook for rice in 2025/26.

Published Date: August 13, 2025