By Reuters.

BANGKOK- Thailand’s rice exports will likely drop by 25 percent in 2025 from last year, an industry group said on Monday, partly due to more shipments from India.

Thailand expects to export about 7.5 million tons of rice in 2025, down from 10 million tons in 2024, Chookiat Ophaswongse of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, told Reuters.

More competition from India and less demand from Indonesia attributed to the forecast drop, he said.

Thailand exported 8.35 million tons of rice between January and October last year, an increase of 20 percent over the same period the previous year, the Commerce Ministry earlier reported.

The value of exported rice in those 10 months also rose 40 percent year on year to $5.41 billion or 191.03 billion baht, Arada Fuangtong, director-general of the Department of Foreign Trade, said.

White rice is responsible for 62 percent of the total exports or 5.18 million tons, followed by jasmine rice at 1.37 million tons, steamed rice at 1.01 million tons, fragrant rice at 0.54 million tons, sticky rice at 0.23 million tons and brown rice at 0.02 million tons.

Arada said Thailand’s five biggest export markets are Indonesia, which imported 1.12 million tons of rice, followed by Iraq (0.95 million tons), South Africa (0.72 million tons), the United States (0.7 million tons), and the Philippines (0.49 million tons).

The department has set the target of rice exports in 2024 at 9 million tons, said Arada, adding that by combining the 10-month tally and export applications filed in November, total rice exports from January to November are anticipated to have already reached 9.27 million tons.

“There is a chance that rice exports this year could reach the 10 million tons milestone, as demand in overseas markets is expected to increase during the Christmas and New Year holidays,” she said. “Some importers might also increase their orders to prepare for the Chinese New Year in late January.”

Meanwhile, Indonesia’s state food procurement company Bulog has more than doubled its domestic rice procurement target for this year to 3 million metric tons from 1.27 million tons in 2024, Bulog data showed on Monday.

The senior minister overseeing food affairs, Zulkifli Hasan, has said that Indonesia will not import rice this year after buying in more than 3.7 million tons in 2024.

“We will optimize domestic procurement during the peak harvest in March to May so that the procurement target…can be achieved,” Bulog official Yayat Hidayat told a weekly inflation meeting on Monday.

Zulkifli said the government will raise its purchase price for unhusked rice by 500 rupiah to 6,500 rupiah ($0.4015) a kilogram from Jan. 15.

Indonesia’s 2025 rice output is estimated to rise to 32.8 million tons from an estimated 30.34 million tons last year.

Published Date: January 7, 2025