Trump administration could target Thailand because of its trade surplus, says academic

Rice, one of Thailand’s key exports to the United States, is at risk of facing higher tariffs due to the protectionist policies of the Trump administration as part of his “America First” campaign, an expert warned on Friday.

The campaign targets countries that have a trade surplus with the US, which includes Thailand, Assoc Prof Somporn Isvilanonda, an academic at Knowledge Network Institute of Thailand, said.

He warned that Trump’s policy was threatening global free trade developed under the World Trade Organisation’s globalisation framework for over three decades, and was likely to affect several countries, including Thailand.

Somporn pointed out that Thailand’s trade surplus with the US had increased continuously over the past decade, rising from US$29.04 billion in 2023 to $35.42 billion in 2024. This puts Thailand at 11th place among countries that have the highest trade surplus with the US.

He warned that the US tariff wall would severely affect Thailand’s rice exports to the country, which amounted to around 830,000 tonnes per year, 85% of which – 705,500 tonnes – are jasmine and fragrant rice. Other export products that could also be affected include electrical appliances, automotive parts, industrial products, and some minerals.

“In addition, the geopolitical factors that the superpowers use as mechanisms for market domination and to create bargaining power would impact security policies, economic policies, and trade both at the regional and bilateral levels. These uncertainties will cause fluctuations in trade, especially of agricultural products and energy prices,” said Somporn.

The Thai Rice Exporters Association reported that Thailand had sold 848,449 tonnes of rice to the US last year, increasing 20.1% year on year. These exports are valued at 28.02 billion baht, increasing 27.8% year on year.

The US is Thailand’s third-largest market for rice following Indonesia and Iraq, but is the largest buyer of jasmine rice.

Published Date: March 8, 2025