By Pratik Parija / Bloomberg

(Nov 6): Rice prices in Asia are poised to fall further as a bumper Indian harvest adds to plentiful global supply, while the world’s biggest importer curbs its overseas purchases to support local farmers.

Some importers are currently sitting on rice inventories that cover three-to-five months of consumption, said Nitin Gupta, the deputy country head at Olam Agri India Pvt, citing countries in West Africa. The market is facing a swelling surplus, which will weigh on regional prices, he added.

Asia’s benchmark price dropped to a 10-year low last month, offering relief for household budgets but squeezing the income of farmers from India to Thailand. The Philippines, the world’s top buyer, plans to broadly extend its ban on overseas purchases until April to support its agricultural industry.

Benchmark Thai white rice 5% broken fell to US$351 (RM1,468) a tonne on Oct 22, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association, the lowest since September 2015. Millers in Thailand, Pakistan and Myanmar are offering white, parboiled and broken varieties at prices at least 3% cheaper than Indian supplies, Gupta said in an interview on the sidelines of a conference in New Delhi last week.

“We’re working to create new markets to offload our surplus and support farmers,” said Rohith Singh, a director at the civil supplies department for Telangana who is in charge of rice exports. Officials from the state met buyers from Benin, Kuwait and North Africa last week, he added.

Global rice output is forecast to reach a record 556.4 million tonnes in 2025-26, according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization. Farmers in the South Asian nation started harvesting their crop in late September, with collection due to finish by the end of the year.

Ample global supply is allowing some buyers to take a more measured approach to their procurement. Dubai-based Invictus Trading Fze plans to purchase rice from India in tranches, rather than bulk, on expectations prices will continue to decline, said senior business development manager Dharmendra Rawat.

“The bearish trend will persist as India is producing too much rice,” said Samarendu Mohanty, a former senior economist at the International Rice Research Institute. Domestic prices could drop another 10% to 15% due to oversupply and soft overseas demand, he added.

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Published Date: November 6, 2025