Demand for staple rice in Japan is likely to total between 6.97 million and 7.11 million tons in the year through June 2026, down slightly or unchanged from the previous year’s real demand, the agriculture ministry said Friday.

The ministry’s food council subgroup came up with the key one-year estimate about two months later than scheduled, as it had to make calculations under a new formula after the initial estimate and actual demand showed a wide difference a year earlier.

The panel, which used to make staple rice demand projections in view of the shrinking population and rice consumption, has found it necessary to adopt a new calculation method so its estimate can also reflect increasing demand from foreign tourists and declining yields of polished rice caused by rising heat stress, among other factors.

The ministry plans to fine-tune the demand projection through next June after surveying the amount of rice distributed as thank-you gifts under the furusato nōzei (hometown tax donation) system.

Meanwhile, 2025’s staple rice production is forecast at between 7.28 million and 7.45 million tons, surpassing the initial estimate of 6.69 million tons for 2024. The private sector’s rice inventory is expected to grow up to 1.5 times year on year to 2.29 million tons as of June 31 next year.

At a news conference after a Cabinet meeting Friday, farm minister Shinjiro Koizumi highlighted the inventory growth forecast in a bid to ease worries among rice dealers and retailers over a possible supply shortage.

Published Date: September 20, 2025