By Giselle P. Jordan.

UNFAVORABLE weather conditions have been cited as reason for British research firm BMI to forecast a 2.6 percent year-on-year decrease in the Philippines’ rice production for crop year (CY) 2024-2025.

BMI said it expects 1.2 million metric tons (MT) of domestic rice harvest in CY 2024-2025, lower than the 1.23 million MT in CY 2023-2024. There have been low levels of rainfall due to El Niño in 2024, and typhoons hit the country in the fourth quarter of the same year.

Despite lower rice production, there will be higher consumption, which will be addressed by imports, BMI said.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected a 2.8-percent annual increase in the Philippines’ rice imports for CY 2024-2025. These are expected to account for 30 percent of domestic consumption, a significant spike from the 17 percent five years ago.

Though the drop in production will push domestic rice prices up, BMI said food security emergency on rice imposed by the Department of Agriculture may stabilize costs of the commodity in the following months.

Rice prices have gone down globally in the past year due to eased export restrictions and a rebound in production in India. In fact, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) All Rice Price Index (Farpi) for January is at 113.6, lower than the 142.8 in the same month last year.

It further declined to 105.9 in February, 24.7 percent lower than the price in the same period last year. This is also the lowest price index since April 2022.

However, rice in Philippines remains expensive. Regular milled rice sold at an average of P47.20 per kilogram (kg) in February. It is higher than the P39.90/kg in February 2023, but lower than the peak of P51.30/kg in April 2024.

High prices compelled the DA to declare a food security emergency, to enable the release rice buffer stocks from the National Food Authority.

BMI believes the measure will lower local rice prices, since the country’s stocks have expanded. Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed rice stocks had a 38.9-percent annual increase to 2.1 million MT from 1.51 million MT inventory in the same period last year.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. reduced rice tariffs from 35 to 15 percent in July 2024.

BMI sees average rice prices in the following months to be lower than those of 2024 and 2023.

However, while inflation had eased from 6.2 percent in 2023 to 3.2 percent in 2024, BMI’s country risk team expects it to rise to 3.3 percent in 2025.

Published Date: March 12, 2025