PHILIPPINE RICE imports will likely decline 1.9% to 5.2 million metric tons (MMT) this year due to an expected increase in domestic production, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Milled rice production is expected to increase 2.1% to 12.25 MMT in marketing year (MY) 2025/26 due to favorable weather and increased government intervention backed by an enlarged competitiveness-enhancing budget funded by rice tariffs, the USDA said in a report, citing its Foreign Agriculture Service.

A 2024 law that amended the Rice Tariffication Law of 2019, which deregulated the rice industry by removing the power of the National Food Authority (NFA) to import the commodity, expanded the Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund (RCEF) to P30 billion from P10 billion.

Aside from a rebound in production, other factors driving Philippine imports down are stocks carried over from 2024/25 and the imposition of a maximum suggested retail price on imported premium rice, the report said.

Vietnam and Thailand will remain as the key suppliers of rice to the Philippines in MY 2025/26, it said.

“This is due to established trade relationships, competitive prices, and the geographical proximity of Vietnam and Thailand to the Philippines,” the report noted.

However, it forecast “a decrease in supply of imported 5% broken rice in the Philippines in MY 2025/26, given the ongoing implementation of the MSRP on imported premium rice,” it said.

Imported rice is subject to a 15% tariff until 2028 under Executive Order No. 62, which farmer groups said has failed to significantly bring down the retail price of rice.

The Federation of Free Farmers (FFF) is asking the Tariff Commission to restore rice import tariffs to 35% for Southeast Asian grain. The FFF has also asked the commission to impose a 50% tariff on grain from all other countries.

The MSRP for imported rice was set at P45 per kilo beginning March 31. It started at P58 per kilo on Jan. 20, followed by P55 per kilo on Feb. 5, P52 per kilo on Feb. 15 and P49 per kilo on March 1.

The USDA report said the estimated land area to be harvested will also likely increase 2.2% to 4.70 million hectares in MY 2025/26.

It noted that RCEF contributed to production growing by an average rate of 1.9% year on year between MY 2018/19 and MY 2022/23.

Rice imports hit an all-time high of nearly 4.7 MMT in 2024.

Raul F. Montemayor of the FFF said due to excess imports last year, “a lot of rice stocks were not consumed in 2024 and were instead carried over to 2025.”

“That is why the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) is estimating that our 2025 beginning stock was equivalent to 3.8 million tons, good for about 108 days,” he said via Viber.

Beginning stock is usually good for 60-70 days’ demand, he noted.

“Whether better production, larger RCEF, and the MSRP will temper imports remains to be seen,” he said.

“If international prices continue to go down, importers will continue to bring in rice and sell imports for less than local rice even if we have sufficient supply,” he added.

The USDA report, meanwhile, noted that Philippine rice consumption will increase 0.6% to 17.30 MMT in MY 2025/26, largely driven by steady population growth, moderating inflation levels, and growing income levels.

It said the Philippine population is projected to grow from 118.28 million to 121.94 million people from 2024 to 2026.

Retail rice prices are gradually declining due to softening global prices, allowing consumers.

National daily demand for rice averages 37,000 MT, according to the DA.

The USDA report also said Philippine rice stocks will rise 4.1% to 3.85 MMT in MY 2025/26, due to an increase in the procurement activities of the NFA, coupled with the ongoing rice imports by private traders.

Meanwhile, “rice stocks held at the household level are forecast to decline in MY 2025/26, as lower prices reduce the need for households to hold excessive stock,” it added.

A food security emergency on rice was declared on Feb. 3, allowing the NFA to release stocks onto the market to tame retail prices and prepare its warehouses for the procurement of the new harvest beginning mid-February.

The NFA is hoping to procure as much as 870,000 MT of palay (unmilled rice) this year.

“With the Philippine Statistics Authority’s updated milled recovery rate at 63%, this would translate to around 550,000 MT of milled rice, leading to the higher forecast of rice stocks in MY 2025/26,” according to the report. — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza

Published Date: April 1, 2025