By: Jordeene B. Lagare

MANILA, Philippines – Local rice production is projected to decrease this current crop year due to unfavorable weather conditions, which could translate to higher retail prices, according to research firm BMI.

In a report, BMI said the domestic output is pegged at 1.2 million metric tons (MT) in the 2024/2025 cycle, down by 2.6 percent from 1.23 million MT previously.

In the Philippines, the crop year for rice starts in July and ends in June the following year.

“Although domestic production will ease, we also expect consumption to grow thanks to an increase in imports…” said BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.

The research firm estimated that imports would account for about 30 percent of domestic production, a significant increase from the 17 percent five years ago.

The US Department of Agriculture had projected the Philippines’ rice imports to reach 5.6 million MT this year, up by almost 2 percent from a year prior, retaining its position as the world’s leading rice importer.

BMI said retail prices are expected to decrease following the declaration of a food security emergency.

The Fitch unit said the emergency declaration “will place further downward pressure on domestic prices, particularly given that stocks in the Philippines are elevated.”

With average rice futures prices anticipated to drop in 2025, BMI said “the easing of global prices is a further upside risk for consumers in the Philippines.”

Last month, the Department of Agriculture made an emergency declaration to address extraordinary price increases despite slashing the import duty to 15 percent last July and declining global rice prices.

The rice price index of the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization averaged 113.6 in January, down by 20.5 percent from 142.8 in the same month last year.

By next year, BMI said domestic output would recover because of improved weather conditions and the extension of the Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund until 2031. INQ

Published Date: March 12, 2025