By: Jordeene B. Lagare 

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines’ rice supply is expected to remain stable during the lean season following a good harvest, according to the Department of Agriculture (DA).

In a briefing on Wednesday, Agriculture Assistant Secretary Arnel de Mesa said retail prices of the staple should be steady. He said the is country assured of “ample” inventory until the next harvest season.

“Throughout the dry season, we had a good harvest. And barring any major weather disturbance until the end of the year, we’re expecting to still hit our target for the year of 20.4 million metric tons (MT),” said De Mesa.

He cited weather forecasts from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. De Mesa said normal rainfall patterns were expected this year, without disruption from El Niño or La Niña.

El Niño is characterized by dry weather and decreased rainfall, while La Niña brings heavy rains and flooding.

“Climatic conditions are really not abnormal to [prompt] worse conditions for agriculture. Of course, if there are strong typhoons, that is what we cannot avoid,” he told reporters.

Supply situation

The country has 2.34 million MT of rice stocks as of April. This is in an increase of  26.2 percent from 1.86 million MT the year prior, the Philippine Statistics Authority said.

Households accounted for 50.2 percent of the total, while the commercial sector holds 35.1 percent. The remaining 14.8 percent are from the National Food Authority depositories.

Given this scenario, de Mesa said the agency was a “little surprised” by the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) latest projection that rice imports would hit a record high of 5.4 million MT this year.

“Medyo malaki (That’s quite large),” he added.

If it comes to pass, the USDA’s forecast would breach record-high imports of 4.8 million MT in 2024.

Overseas purchases totaled 1.7 million MT as of May 22, data from the Bureau of Plant Industry showed. This is a 20.9-percent decrease from 2.15 million MT during the first five months of last year.

Rice imports

Among the country’s major suppliers, Vietnam shipped 3.18 million MT, representing 73.5 percent of the total. Myanmar came second with 15.3 percent, Thailand with 5.7 percent and Pakistan with 4.1 percent.

Local palay production, meanwhile, slightly increased to 4.69 million MT in the first quarter of 2025. This comes from 4.68 million MT previously.

Subject to a periodic review every four months, imported rice is currently levied a 15-percent tariff under Executive Order No. 62.

The government collected P34.229 billion in rice tariffs in the previous year, an increase of 12.57 percent from P29.927 billion in 2023, based on data from the Bureau of Customs.

De Mesa noted that on average, palay (unmilled rice) production declined by 500,000 MT to 600,000 MT annually because of storms and weather disturbances.

However, due to the confluence of El Niño, La Niña and other weather conditions, he said that domestic output declined by almost 1 million MT in 2024, ending at 19.09 million MT. This was a 4.8-percent drop from the record 20.06 million MT previously.

Published Date: May 29, 2025