By Susan Reidy

LAGOS, NIGERIA — Nigeria’s wheat, rice and corn production in 2026-27 is expected to drop due to increasing rural insecurity, higher input costs and reduced farmer incentives, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Wheat production is estimated down 8% to 120,000 tonnes from last year. Consumption also is expected to drop, reflecting a decrease in imports and lower consumer purchasing power.

Imports for 2026-27 are estimated at 5.6 million tonnes, a decrease of about 5% compared with the 2025-26 projection. The decline is attributed to the expected higher price of imports, the FAS said. Russia is Nigeria’s second-largest wheat supplier and shipping bottlenecks and higher logistics costs are impacting Black Sea shipments.

Corn production is expected to decrease by 5% to 11.1 million tonnes in 2026-27.

“Higher operational expenses, combined with volatile or depressed farmgate prices, leave producers unable to cover costs, forcing many to scale back planting area or abandon corn cultivation,” the FAS said.

Corn consumption is estimated at 12.1 million tonnes, a 3% increase from last year due to lower domestic corn prices.

“Feed and residual corn use is expected to be the primary driver of growth within the consumption mix, fueled by expanding demand from poultry, aquaculture, and livestock producers who are steadily scaling up operations,” the FAS said.

Imports are expected to soar 500% to 900,000 tonnes due to the increase in consumption and a likely government interest in importing corn to curb food inflation.

Rice production is estimated at 8.8 million tonnes, a 6% decrease compared with last year.

“Lower rice prices continue to discourage farmers from expanding production, even amid expected increases in rice consumption,” the FAS said.Consumption is expected to increase 6% to 9.1 million tonnes. Imports are estimated at 3.1 million tonnes, an 11% increase compared with 2025-26.

Published Date: October 6, 2026