(Mainichi Japan)

TOKYO — Nearly two years after the so-called “Reiwa-era rice upheaval” began in the summer of 2024, causing rice shortages and soaring prices, Japan is now experiencing a surplus, with farmers voicing concerns about falling purchase prices.

The rice shortages that hit Japan from 2024 were attributed to increased consumption by inbound tourists, panic buying following the release of a Nankai Trough earthquake advisory in August 2024, and poor yields of the 2023 harvest caused by heat damage. At the peak of the crisis in January 2025, the average retail price of rice topped 4,400 yen (about $27) per 5 kilograms.

Once new rice hits the market

Makoto Morioka, 74, who runs an agricultural production corporation in Oshu, Iwate Prefecture, recalled that the local agricultural cooperative’s purchase price “rose at one point to 31,000 yen (about $191) per 60 kilograms of brown rice.” By March 2026, however, private stocks of rice in the prefecture had grown to about 120,000 tons, nearly double the level a year earlier. The increase was attributed to higher yields from the 2025 harvest and declining rice consumption following the price spike.

When new rice hits the market in September, further price drops are expected. Before the rice upheaval, co-op purchase prices for 60 kilograms of brown rice were in the 10,000-yen range (over $62). But Morioka pointed out that on the whole increases in the costs of fertilizer, pesticides and farm machinery have outpaced inflation, adding with concern that, “Even 20,000 yen now means a loss.”

Katsuhiro Hosokawa, 62, who runs a family farm in Shiwa, Iwate Prefecture, also expressed concern, saying, “If purchase prices fluctuate sharply, we can’t make plans.” He added, “Many farmers say they will retire if their farm machinery breaks down. We want the government to revive subsidies for replacing farm machinery and equipment.”

Concerns about sustainability of farming

Daisuke Komaeda, an associate senior researcher specializing in agricultural and fisheries policy at NLI Research Institute, said, “Retail prices could fall to the low 3,000-yen range (above $18.50) per 5 kilograms as the new rice season approaches. A rough benchmark for purchase prices would be 20,000 to 25,000 yen (about $123 to $154) per 60 kilograms of brown rice.”

He noted, “At that level, not all farmers can earn enough to remain profitable, and concerns about the sustainability of farming will likely persist.”

(Japanese original by Mineichiro Yamakoshi, Tokyo City News Department)

Published Date: July 14, 2026