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The Philippines, the world’s top rice importer, is now looking to broaden its supplier base beyond Vietnam to secure more stable supply and competitive prices.

Speaking on Friday, Philippines Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel shared that the department is in discussions with private importers about sourcing rice from countries like India, Pakistan, Cambodia, and Myanmar. Talks are also underway for potential agreements with Indonesia and Thailand.

“We’re working on diversifying our supply sources to create a level playing field,” Laurel said. While Vietnam remains “the most reliable” partner, he cautioned that relying on one country for 90% of imports poses a risk in case of unexpected supply disruptions.

Vietnamese rice prices have already hit a three-month high in April, driven by stronger demand from both local and international buyers, according to data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who previously served as agriculture secretary before Laurel’s appointment in November 2023, has made affordable rice a national priority. His administration slashed rice import tariffs from 35% to 15% last year and declared a food security emergency in February. These measures have contributed to slowing inflation, now at its lowest since 2019, providing the central bank with space to ease interest rates further.

Looking ahead, Laurel estimates that rice imports in 2025 will not exceed 4.5 million tons, lower than this year’s levels. This contrasts with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s projection of 5.4 million tons. On the domestic front, the Philippines is on track to hit a record high of 20.46 million tons in rough rice production.

In a separate opportunity, Laurel noted that the Philippines is subject to a 17% duty rate on exports to the U.S., the second lowest in Southeast Asia after Singapore under President Donald Trump’s trade policy. This, he said, could give Filipino exporters especially those in seafood products like tilapia and shrimp an edge over regional competitors.

India’s Rice Exports Hit Record $12.47 Billion, Fueling Surge in Agri Trade

Meanwhile, India is witnessing boom as its agricultural and processed food exports saw a strong 13% year-on-year growth in FY25, reaching $25.14 billion –  a notable uptick even as overall exports from the country rose only marginally. The standout performer: rice exports, which jumped 20% and crossed the $12 billion mark for the first time.

According to data from the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS), rice exports including both basmati and non-basmati varieties surged to $12.47 billion in 2024–25, compared to $10.41 billion in the previous fiscal year.

The sharp rise follows the Indian government’s decision to ease export restrictions in September 2024, following a forecast of bumper output and abundant domestic stocks. Over the subsequent months, the government phased out all curbs, including the minimum export price (MEP), which had been impacting competitiveness.

Exporters estimate that rice shipments may have exceeded 20 million tonnes (MT) in volume during FY25.

“The removal of the $950-per-tonne MEP on basmati rice was a game-changer,” said Akshay Gupta, India head of exports at KRBL, which sells the ‘India Gate’ brand in over 90 countries. “It allowed Indian exporters to deliver premium rice at competitive rates globally.”

Gupta added that the momentum is likely to continue, supported by rising demand from non-traditional markets, greater adoption of agri-tech solutions across the supply chain, and an increasing focus on sustainable practices.

India also cemented its lead over Pakistan in the premium rice segment. “With basmati rice exports hitting 5 million tonnes in FY25, India has outpaced Pakistan, which exports less than a million tonnes annually,” said Ranjit Singh Jossan, Managing Director of Punjab-based Jossan Grains.

Trade analysts point out that India’s dominance in global rice trade, already a decade long, has been further solidified with surging demand from Africa and Southeast Asia. The country remains the world’s largest exporter of rice, and this year’s performance has only widened that lead.

India Tops Global Rice Export Rankings, Leaving US and China Far Behind

India has also cemented its position as the undisputed leader in the global rice trade, with export volumes and market influence that far outstrip its competitors. The country remains the world’s largest rice exporter so dominant that even minor policy changes can trigger significant ripples in global rice prices.

According to trade estimates, India exported 22 million tonnes of rice in 2022 alone, valued at approximately USD 1.07 billion. This volume is nearly three times that of Thailand, the second-largest exporter, which is known for its premium Jasmine rice.

Following India and Thailand are Vietnam, Pakistan, China, and the United States – all important players in the global market, but none matching India’s scale or influence. Pakistan specializes in Basmati rice, while Vietnam has become a reliable supplier to Asia and Africa. The U.S., too, maintains a presence, but its export share is modest in comparison.

India’s Policy Shift Rocks the Global Market
India’s dominance was once again on full display when it recently lifted its export restrictions on rice, a move that immediately drove down global rice prices. Thai white rice, for example, fell to USD 405 per tonne, a sharp drop from USD 669 in January 2024.

These export curbs were initially introduced in response to global inflation concerns sparked by the Russia-Ukraine war. Fearing domestic shortages, India had restricted rice shipments. However, with a bumper crop and surplus stocks, the government reversed course in late 2024 to boost export earnings and support farmer incomes.

India’s agriculture sector employs more than 42% of its 1.4 billion citizens, and the government is pushing to scale up exports as part of its long-term economic vision. The current target: $100 billion worth of agricultural and food exports by 2030.

Global Competitors Trail India
While Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan remain formidable rice exporters, and China and the U.S. continue to contribute to global supply, none wield the kind of market-moving power that India does. With the lifting of restrictions, India has reasserted its pricing power and its ability to influence not just supply volumes but also the direction of global trade.

Thailand Holds Ground in Global Rice Market, But India’s Price Power Casts a Long Shadow

Thailand’s rice exports are expected to reach 7.5 million metric tonnes (MT) in 2025, driven by early momentum and strong buyer confidence, even as global market sentiment remains fragile and Indian competition grows more aggressive. According to Charoen Laothammatas, President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA), consistent quality and reliability continue to be Thailand’s key differentiators in a volatile global landscape.

“In the first four months of 2025 alone, Thailand exported between 2.5 to 2.7 million MT. We are on track to meet our annual target,” Laothammatas told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects Thailand will export 7 million MT in the 2024–25 marketing year, with a slight uptick to 7.2 million MT in 2025–26. Key traditional markets like China and Iraq are expected to drive these volumes.

India’s Shadow Looms Large
However, India’s record-breaking rice output – estimated at 147 million MT – is placing downward pressure on global prices. With demand from major importers such as Indonesia currently subdued, India’s aggressive pricing strategy has made the market significantly more competitive.

“India’s price undercutting is impacting everyone,” said Laothammatas. “But Thailand still commands a premium — buyers are willing to pay more for our consistent quality.”

South African importers continue to favour Thai rice, and Thai Hom Mali rice maintains strong demand in the U.S., with annual exports of 650,000 MT. However, rising tariff risks in the U.S. could gradually erode Thailand’s share, potentially opening the door for Vietnam, which currently exports about 30,000 MT to the U.S. annually.

Thailand’s Domestic Challenges Persist
Laothammatas reaffirmed Thailand’s opposition to export bans or heavy government intervention in trade, a stance that contrasts sharply with India’s past curbs.

“Thailand believes in free-market dynamics. We’ve never imposed a rice export ban.”

Still, domestic pain points persist. Paddy prices have fallen below production costs in Thailand, hurting farmers and potentially prompting them to skip crop cycles. Additionally, strict purity standards, especially for Hom Mali rice, continue to raise compliance and inspection costs for exporters.

Looking ahead, the TREA president emphasized the need for innovation in the sector. “We must invest in developing new rice varieties that meet shifting buyer expectations while maintaining our hallmark quality.”

Vietnam Rises As Strong Third Player
Meanwhile, Vietnam posted record rice exports of 9 million tonnes in 2024, generating $5.7 billion in revenue. This cements its position as the world’s third-largest rice exporter, behind India and Thailand. The Philippines, Indonesia, and China remain its top importers, while Malaysia emerged as a fast-growing market with a 2.3x increase in rice import value compared to 2023.

Vietnam’s strength lies in its pivot to premium rice varieties including ST rice, Đài Thơm 8, and OM18 which fetched an average export price above $600 per tonne, a 28% rise over the past three years.

Published Date: June 2, 2025