Indian rice prices could fall by $15 to $25 per ton by March, as supplies increase from the new-season crop.

Reuters

RAIPUR, INDIA: Global rice prices are expected to remain under pressure in 2026, as major producers, including India, Thailand and Vietnam, compete to ship surplus supplies, prompting buyers to delay purchases, trade and industry officials said on Friday.

Lower rice prices will benefit price-sensitive consumers in Africa and other regions, but they are likely to squeeze the already meagre earnings of farmers across Asia, which produces nearly 90% of the world’s rice.

“Key exporters such as India, Thailand and Vietnam are sitting on surplus, and buyers know it. They’re testing sellers’ patience by holding back on purchases,” said Nitin Gupta, senior vice president at Olam Agri India.

Indian rice prices could fall by $15 to $25 per ton by March, as supplies increase from the new-season crop, which is estimated to be a record, Gupta said on the sidelines of India International Rice Summit.

India is the world’s largest rice exporter, accounting for nearly 40% of global shipments. Indian rice prices have recently edged up from a nine-year low hit in October. The country is currently offering 5% broken parboiled rice at around $355–$360 per ton, while 5% broken white rice is priced at $350–$355 per ton.

The new-season crop is adding to already large inventories from the previous season, pushing Indian prices below those offered by Thailand and Vietnam, said Niraj Kumar, head of India rice business at Aditya Birla Global Trading.

India’s rice inventories in government warehouses climbed nearly 12% from a year earlier to a record 57.57 million metric tons for early December after state-run agencies stepped up procurement of the new-season paddy crop, government data showed.

Global rice output is expected to reach a record 556.4 million metric tons in 2025/26, up 1.2% from the previous year, according to estimates from the Food and Agriculture Organization.

Key rice importers such as Indonesia and the Philippines have recently imposed restrictions on rice imports, intensifying competition among exporters seeking a larger share of other markets, Mukesh Jain, president of The Rice Exporters Association Chhattisgarh, said.

Published Date: January 9, 2026