El Niño-related weather disruptions expected to reduce global rice production by 2%, marking the first annual decline in a decade.

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International rice prices are projected to rise by approximately 12% in 2027 as adverse weather conditions associated with El Niño threaten production across major Asian exporting countries, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook.

The October 2026 report forecasts that the benchmark Thai 5% rice price will average $448 per metric tonne in 2026, representing an increase of 9.8% from $408 per tonne in 2025.

Prices are expected to rise by another 11.6% to $500 per tonne in 2027 before declining by 6.4% to $468 per tonne in 2028.

The World Bank projects that global rice production will decline by 2% during the 2026–27 season, marking the first annual contraction in a decade, as El Niño affects harvests in major Asian exporting countries.

The report said adverse weather conditions associated with El Niño have already disrupted the planting and harvesting of rice and sugar in several producing regions.

The World Bank has revised its 2027 rice price forecast upward by 21% compared with its April 2026 projection, reflecting growing concerns over future supplies.

The report noted that rice prices increased by 6% during the third quarter of 2026 compared with the preceding quarter, as international markets responded to tightening supply prospects.

The anticipated increases in rice prices during 2026 and 2027 would be the largest since 2012, apart from those recorded in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted supplies, and in 2023, when export restrictions contributed to sharp price increases.

The World Bank’s baseline forecast assumes that major rice-exporting countries will not introduce export restrictions in response to production declines.

However, the report warned that such measures could amplify price pressures, as occurred during the 2023–24 El Niño episode.

The unusually strong El Niño is expected to continue into early 2027, increasing the possibility of severe weather disruptions in agricultural regions.

Flooding, drought and heat stress could affect crop yields, although the overall impact on global food commodity prices is expected to remain manageable under the baseline forecast.

The World Bank expects global food commodity prices to increase by 10% in 2026 and another 7% in 2027, with grain prices projected to rise by 9% next year.

The report cautioned that stronger-than-anticipated weather disruptions could push rice and other agricultural commodity prices above current projections.

The forecasts relate to international rice prices and global production. The report does not provide a separate estimate of Pakistan’s rice production, domestic prices or export volumes.

Published Date: October 29, 2026