By Arvin Donley

TOKYO, JAPAN — Rice prices in Japan are projected to decline significantly from the historical highs observed through 2024 and 2025, and rice will reclaim market share from wheat in marketing year 2026-27, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Japan’s rice production will continue to rebound from a slump in 2024-25, with the latest forecast edging out last year’s official tally. Overall rice production year on year is expected to increase by about 100,000 tonnes to 7.37 million tonnes, driven mainly by increases to non-table rice production, the FAS said.

With domestic supplies stabilized, Japan will import the minimum market access volume of rice, the FAS noted.

“The government’s rice stock management decisions in 2026-27, especially regarding excess private table rice stocks and replenishing government reserves, will hold heavy sway over the feed market as increases in rice supplies could reduce consumption of feed corn and wheat,” the FAS said.

Rice consumption in Japan is projected to increase by 7% from 2025-26 to 7.9 million tonnes, the FAS said. Per capita consumption has been declining as Japan has become economically prosperous. On average, people consumed 1,106 kcal from rice in 1960, but this declined to 475 to 500 kcal by the 2020s as Japanese consumers diversified their food choices.

“However, starting around spring 2022, the Japanese yen suddenly began depreciating, and global energy and food prices climbed,” the FAS said. “As a result, grocery prices for most food items in Japan, especially imported items, increased. Rice was the one exception, since its self-sufficiency rate is very high and its prices were somewhat insulated from exchange rate fluctuations and global commodity markets. This boosted rice demand in 2022 and 2023.”The FAS forecasts Japan’s 2026-27 rice exports at 80,000 tonnnes, a 22% increase from the 2025-26 estimate, driven by an anticipated recovery in food aid exports from government stocks and robust commercial sales.

Published Date: October 6, 2026