There is an 80 percent chance of El Niño developing between June and August, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Written by: Victor Dasgupta  Edited by: Victor Dasgupta

New Delhi: Rice export prices in Vietnam have risen this week amid growing concerns over the possible impact of El Niño across Asia. Meanwhile, prices in Bangladesh remain surged due to extreme heat and crop damage. In India, on the other hand, the prices of rice remained stable thanks to ample stock levels and steady supplies.

Rice Prices Rise in Vietnam

As per a Reuters report, the export price of Vietnam’s 5 percent broken rice increased to USD 415–420 per tonne this week, compared to USD 405–410 per tonne last week. Government data shows that Vietnam exported approximately 925,000 tonnes of rice in May, up 19 percent from the same period last year. Additionally, the country’s total rice exports during the first five months of 2026 reached 4.3 million tonnes, marking a 2.4% year-on-year increase.

Major concerns over El Niño intensify

There is an 80 percent chance of El Niño developing between June and August, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The likelihood of it persisting until November is estimated at 90 percent. As per the Navbharat Times report, a trader in Vietnam said that concerns over potential production disruptions across Asia due to El Niño have created a bullish sentiment in the market. Vietnam has previously been affected by adverse weather conditions, prompting traders to remain cautious about a possible supply crunch.

Heatwave Impacts Bangladesh

In Bangladesh, ongoing paddy harvesting is being disrupted by a mild to moderate heatwave. Farmers say rising temperatures are reducing crop yields and causing moisture to evaporate more quickly from the plants. In addition, heavy pre-monsoon rainfall has damaged more than 200,000 tonnes of rice crops, putting further pressure on supplies and keeping prices elevated.

Rice Prices Remain Stable in India: Here are some of the key details

• India’s 5 percent broken parboiled rice was quoted at USD 337–345 per tonne this week, unchanged from the previous week.
• 5 percent broken white rice was priced at $338–344 per tonne.
• According to an exporter in New Delhi, other major rice-exporting countries have limited surplus stocks
• The exporters are raising prices amid concerns that El Niño could reduce production in the next growing season.
• In contrast, India’s abundant rice availability has helped keep prices stable.

Firm Prices in Thailand

Thailand’s 5 percent broken rice was quoted at around USD 450 per tonne.

Traders in Bangkok said that rising prices of broken rice used in animal feed have increased production costs, helping keep rice prices firm. However, market participants are now closely watching the next harvest, expected in about three months, which should provide a clearer picture of the actual impact of El Niño on production.

What is El Niño? 

El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

Why is El Niño important for rice production?

It can alter rainfall patterns and temperatures across Asia, often leading to droughts, heatwaves, or irregular rainfall that can negatively affect rice cultivation and yields.

Why have rice prices increased in Vietnam?

Rice prices in Vietnam have risen due to concerns that El Niño could reduce crop production in the coming months.

How has Bangladesh’s rice sector been affected?

Bangladesh has been hit by extreme heat and heavy pre-monsoon rains. The heatwave has affected paddy harvesting and reduced yields, while excessive rainfall has damaged more than 200,000 tonnes of rice crops, putting pressure on supplies

Published Date: June 7, 2026