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Domestic rice production key as Taiwan negotiates US trade deal

Jane Rickards

Domestic rice supply is a great security concern in Taiwan, one that’s been stoked by trade negotiations with the United States.

Washington wants more access to Taiwan’s rice market. In Taiwan, the worry is that greater imports would damage the domestic production that it would need for stretching out stocks if China blockaded the island.

As things stand, production and stocks could keep the island’s rice bowls full for a year or so without imports.

Japan’s US trade deal in July set a worrying precedent for Taiwan. The White House said Japan would expedite implementation of a 75 percent increase in purchases of US rice. Taiwanese farmers’ groups then warned that if Taiwan imported cheap US rice under a zero-tariff arrangement, the imports would flood Taiwan’s markets and cause irreversible harm to the island’s own rice businesses.

According to the latest available data from the Ministry of Agriculture, in 2023 Taiwan produced only 30 percent of the food it consumed, measured by energy content. This was the lowest ratio in 18 years.

Nonetheless, Wang Ting-yu, a prominent ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) member of parliament who has expertise in defence and foreign affairs, reckons that if China blocked all food imports to Taiwan, rationing could stretch out supplies for a year.

‘It’s not easy to hunger the Taiwan people under a blockade,’ he said in an interview.

‘Rice is key,’ adds Lo Chih-cheng, a former ruling DPP member of parliament who is now an analyst with Taiwan’s Institute for National Policy Research

Much of Taiwan’s rice is grown domestically. According to the US Department of Agriculture, Taiwan produced 1.15 million tonnes of rice in the marketing year 2024–25.

The level of domestic consumption of rice isn’t known. Under World Trade Organization commitments, Taiwan is obliged to import at least 144,720 metric tonnes of rice annually.

By legislated policy, it must hold least three months’ stock of rice. Wang estimates the current stock is in fact enough for least six months. If Taiwan were isolated for longer than this, and there was a rice harvest on the island during this period, rice demand could be met for 13 months, Wang says. Other foods would also be needed in this time, as usual.

A statement from Taiwan’s Ministry of Agriculture in July supports Wang’s contention. The ministry said public and private granaries were holding 870,00 tonnes of rice. When the first of two expected rice crops this year was added, ‘overall, the supply is sufficient to meet domestic consumption for more than 13 months, so there is no concern about shortages of supply. The public can rest assured,’ the ministry said.

Premier Cho Jung-tai in July visited rice granaries in Yunlin in central Taiwan, where he declared ‘food security is national security, and the government attaches great importance to it.’ He added that the government would work to strengthen and improve granary management.

According to the same figures from 2023, Taiwan is more self-sufficient in meat. Animals raised domestically met 71 percent of mean consumption. (However, this depended on partly imported animal feed.) Local supplies accounted for 84 percent of fruit consumption and 82 percent of vegetable consumption.

The agriculture ministry told parliament last year that, if Taiwan were blockaded, more land would be used to grow rice, and it would also prioritise growing sweet potatoes, soy beans and fresh vegetables. In a scenario that excluded sea fishing, the island’s fish-feed stock could support raising fish in ponds for more than three months, the ministry said.

Lo, the former DPP lawmaker, says Taiwan has plans for food distribution during a cross-strait war involving coordination between government agencies, non-government organizations, and farmers’ associations. Food stores are already dispersed to lower attack risks. The agriculture minister said in March that the government had set up 143 food distribution stations and that the ministry had ‘fully planned’ supply chains that would be activated in the event of an emergency, such as an invasion by China.

Wang says Taiwanese farmers’ associations, which the government sponsors, would be instrumental in distributing food during a crisis. They play a crucial role in helping farmers market their produce during peacetime and help with other items, such as financing for farmers and managing agricultural supplies.

Wang notes that Taiwan’s rice imports under its WTO commitments come from various nations, including the US, Vietnam and Thailand. He says he will recommend to the government that all of rice imports required by its WTO obligations come from the US, in a deal that would make the Americans happy and essentially ditch rice exporters in Vietnam and Thailand, without affecting Taiwanese farmers. Lo for his part reckons Taiwan could see increased imports of US rice after Taiwan and the US conclude their deal in coming months, but, given the importance of food security, ‘there is no way there will be 100 percent dependence on foreign imports,’ Lo says.

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/domestic-rice-production-key-as-taiwan-negotiates-us-trade-deal/ QR Code

Published Date: October 22, 2025

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