By: Jordeene B. Lagare – Reporter

MANILA, Philippines — The Department of Agriculture (DA) no longer expects another record-high palay or unmilled rice production this year due to soaring fertilizer and fuel costs, aggravated by the looming El Niño.

Prior to the Middle East crisis, the DA initially projected palay output of 20.28 million metric tons (MT) for 2026, assuming favorable weather conditions. This would have been 1.1-percent better than the 2023 production of 20.06 million MT, the highest volume recorded by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) since 1987.

But with the Iran war and looming weather risks, the DA revised its palay output forecast for this year to 19.87 million MT.

Agriculture Secretary Arnel de Mesa warned that the figure could further decline by around 1 million MT to about 18.6 million MT to 18.8 million MT, depending on various scenarios.

De Mesa, the DA’s spokesperson, said production costs—from land preparation to crop establishment—are expected to climb if pump prices range between P150 and P190 per liter.

“Supposedly, May and June are the peak months for our land preparation. Farmers will spend more on tractors. These include cultivators, weeders and fertilizer application. If fuel prices are high, the production cost will also be high,” De Mesa said in an interview.

Costly fertilizer

De Mesa said palay farmers may be forced to reduce their fertilizer usage if prices remain steep.

He noted that in the Ilocos region alone, fertilizer prices now cost from P2,800 to P2,900 per 50-kilogram bag.

As of writing, urea (prilled) prices averaged P2.490.17 per 50-kilogram bag from April 13 to 17, higher than P1,675.11 per 50-kg bag around the same period last year, based on the data from the Fertilizer and Pesticide Authority.

Furthermore, the El Niño phenomenon, marked by heavier rainfall, is seen to severely affect productivity around the “ber” months.

“We need to address this separately and jointly so that if we cannot mitigate the impact on our production come harvest season in September and October, at least it can be maintained,” he told reporters. —INQ

Published Date: April 23, 2026