NEWSPAPER SECTION: Business / WRITER: Wichit Chantanusornsiri

The National Rice Policy and Management Committee has approved four projects worth more than 50 billion baht to maintain price stability and strengthen security for rice farmers.

According to Wittayakorn Maneenetr, director-general of the Department of Internal Trade (DIT), the committee approved a paddy sales postponement loan programme for the main 2025/2026 crop. Farmers are encouraged to store paddy in their own barns for 1-5 months, receiving a storage support payment of 1,500 baht per tonne, targeting 3 million tonnes total.

The maximum budget allocation is 9.30 billion baht.

The second project is a credit programme for paddy collection and value addition by agricultural institutions for the 2025/2026 season. The Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) is providing low-interest loans to participating agricultural institutions, targeting 1.5 million tonnes in total, with a supporting budget of more than 656 million baht.

An interest compensation programme for rice traders who stockpile for 2-6 months in the 2025/2026 season offers government interest compensation of 3% annually, targeting 4 million tonnes in total, with a supporting budget of 642 million baht.

The final project is a support programme for rice farmers that promotes suitable cultivation practices. The scheme offers farmers 500 baht per rai, with a maximum of 10 rai, and consists of a budget of 18.9 billion baht.

This project provides support for production input costs via the BAAC’s mobile app, which can be used to purchase supplies from participating stores at a rate of 500 baht per rai.

For farmers located in areas deemed unsuitable to switch production, they are offered 1,500 baht per rai for roughly 1 million rai, with 10% of the 9.85 million rai deemed unsuitable. This portion of the project has a budget of 1.5 billion baht.

A new subcommittee is expected to set criteria, conditions and operational procedures for adjusting production in unsuitable areas, including representatives from the Agriculture and Cooperatives Ministry, the Commerce Ministry, the BAAC, and related agencies. This panel is to present a plan to the National Rice Policy and Management Committee, before submitting it to the cabinet for approval.

The DIT was assigned to cooperate with BAAC in preparing the project documentation required for submission to the cabinet, in accordance with Sections 27 and 28 of the State Fiscal and Financial Disciplines Act.

For the support programme during the dry season in 2025, which offers farmers 1,000 baht per rai, the committee assigned the Rice Department and BAAC to draft the project criteria and conditions for registered farmers under the Agricultural Extension Department. The proposal is to be submitted to the subcommittee on production before heading to the National Rice Policy and Management Committee, then the cabinet.

Some 851,696 households have registered for off-season rice farming, covering an area of 11.8 million rai and requiring a total budget of 7.27 billion baht.

Global Market Outlook

Global rice production is projected at 542 million tonnes this year, a slight increase. Global consumption is estimated at 541 million tonnes, growing faster than production, which could push global rice prices slightly higher.

Global trade volume is estimated at 61.6 million tonnes, with year-end stockpiles at 188 million tonnes, up 0.3% year-on-year. However, risks such as natural disasters and intervention policies by major exporters or importers must be monitored.

Local outlook

For 2025 off-season rice, 96% or 8.2 million tonnes has already been harvested, with the rest expected to be fully released into the market within this month.

For 2025/2026 main-season rice, the cultivation area is estimated at 61.9 million rai, a slight decrease from the previous season, but output is expected to increase to 27.2 million tonnes, up 1%, due to consistent rainfall early in the planting season ensuring adequate water supply. Roughly 72% of the crop is expected to enter the market between November and December.

Domestic rice demand for 2025/2026 is expected to decline to 28.6 million tonnes of paddy, down 2% from the previous year.

Domestic consumption is expected to rise due to tourism and migrant labour, although per capita consumption among Thais continues to decline, now averaging 73.4 kilogrammes per person a year.

Most domestic paddy prices have dropped since last year, especially for white and glutinous rice, although jasmine rice remains high at 15,500-17,000 baht a tonne based on ongoing foreign demand.

Rice exports the first five months of this year tallied 3.05 million tonnes, 41% of the annual target of 7.5 million tonnes. This amount is a 26% dip year-on-year, attributed to price competition and reduced demand in Indonesia and the Philippines.

Published Date: July 2, 2025