USDA report cites Aus, Aman crop losses as import gap set to widen to 1.6m tonnes.

ANM Mohibub Uz Zaman

Bangladesh is set to import 1.6 million tonnes of rice in the 2026-27 marketing year, a 14.3% jump from the previous year, as floods and erratic rainfall drag down Aus and Aman output, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s latest Grain and Feed Annual Report.
The USDA forecast, covering the May-to-April marketing year, projects total milled rice production falling to 36.9 million tonnes from 37.65 million tonnes, even as consumption rises to 39.1 million tonnes – leaving a gap of roughly 2.2 million tonnes that imports and stocks must fill.
The downward revision follows updated crop data from the Department of Agricultural Extension, with the USDA cutting its Aus area and production estimates by 5% and 8.7% respectively from its earlier forecast. 
Bangladesh’s total harvested rice area for 2026-27 is now put at 11.65 million hectares, down from 11.75 million hectares.
Boro remains the dominant crop, forecast at 20.3 million tonnes from 4.9 million hectares, marginally below last year’s 20.5 million tonnes. Aus production is projected at 2.1 million tonnes from 900,000 hectares, while Aman is estimated at 14.5 million tonnes from 5.8 million hectares.
Economist and researcher Dr Jahangir Alam Khan told the Daily Sun that flooding during the Aus season and heavy early rainfall during Aman had submerged newly planted seedlings in some areas, forcing farmers to replant. 
He said irrigation problems and inadequate fertiliser supply had compounded the damage.
“Taken together, these factors indicate that the current production year has not been favourable,” he said, adding that while the USDA’s decline estimate “may be correct,” the actual scale would depend on conditions at the end of the season.
Dr Jahangir noted that under normal conditions Bangladesh typically imports 1.0-1.2 million tonnes of rice annually. 
“If the USDA forecast of 1.6 million tonnes of imports is correct, we may have to import somewhat more than usual,” he said.
He warned that pressure would not ease with the rice harvest alone, pointing to already-high vegetable prices and an approaching Boro season with heavy fertiliser demand. 
“Some fertiliser is being diverted to the black market in different ways,” he said, adding that rising fertiliser prices and supply management issues could push up food prices further if unaddressed. 
He called for fertiliser factories to run at full capacity and for wider use of solar-powered irrigation during Boro, the most water-intensive season.

Imports gain pace, India dominant supplier
Bangladesh imported around 140,000 tonnes of rice in the first three months of 2026-27, mostly through private traders, the USDA report said. 
India supplied more than 90% of the country’s rice imports in 2025-26, with Pakistan and Myanmar each contributing 4% and other sources making up the remainder.
The government has also turned to state-to-state deals to secure supply: on 12 August 2026, it approved an agreement to buy 100,000 tonnes of rice from Vietnam, with further international purchases possible if needed.

Prices diverge between coarse and fine rice
Increased imports and a strong Boro harvest have eased pressure on the coarse rice market. 
The Trading Corporation of Bangladesh recorded average retail coarse rice prices at Tk54.5 per kilogram in July 2026, around 5% lower than a year earlier. 
Fine, non-aromatic rice told a different story, holding broadly steady at Tk78.1 per kilogram since January.
Government rice stocks have strengthened alongside the import push. Public stocks reached 2.08 million tonnes as of 15 August 2026, the highest since January 2022. 
By 8 September, the Ministry of Food recorded total foodgrain stocks of 2,290,431 tonnes, comprising 2,036,102 tonnes of rice, 232,183 tonnes of wheat and 34,070 tonnes of paddy.
The USDA projects total rice supply at 40.67 million tonnes for 2026-27, combining beginning stocks of 2.17 million tonnes with the forecast 1.6 million tonnes in imports. Ending stocks are expected to fall to 1.56 million tonnes, down from 2.17 million tonnes at the start of the year.

Published Date: September 11, 2026