ANN/THE JAKARTA POST – Indonesia is facing growing agricultural losses as the strengthening El Niño weather pattern triggers widespread crop failures and prolongs dry conditions that could extend into next year, with rice output already declining over the past three months.

Farmers in parts of Java, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara and Sumatra have experienced worsening water shortages in recent weeks, according to the Indonesian Farmers Union (SPI). The organisation represents more than one million farmers nationwide, many of whom rely on water-intensive rice cultivation to produce the staple food for the country’s 280 million people.

SPI agroecology department head Kusnan said some farmers lost crops during the April-to-July planting season, a period that would typically still receive sufficient rainfall and alternative water supplies to support rice farming under normal climate conditions.

But Kusnan said that the El Niño has now triggered severe drought and drained water supplies, costing farmers their livelihoods as crop failures threaten these regions. Prolonged rainless days and inadequate sources of water from dams and other irrigation channels, he added, caused farmers to face crop damage, impacting particularly rice and corn crops.

“Across these regions, many farmers have already faced crop failures driven by water crises, rampant pests and disease outbreaks,” Kusnan told The Jakarta Post.

In West Java, a major rice-producing province in Indonesia, the Majalengka administration recently announced that at least 72 hectares of rice fields in Panyingkiran village were damaged by extreme drought. The Bekasi administration, also in West Java, has warned that a total of 1,500 ha of rice fields could face similar threats in the coming months due to prolonged rainless days.

Meanwhile, farmers across 15 subdistricts in Tangerang, Banten, are also under threat of crop failure, according to the Tangerang Agriculture and Food Security Agency (DPKP).

DECLINING PRODUCTION

Indonesia is expected to see a longer dry season this year due to the heightened impacts of El Niño, which brings drier air from the Pacific Ocean to the archipelago.

As of late July, more than two-thirds of Indonesia has entered the dry season, with most regions expecting an extended period of below-normal rainfall throughout the rest of the year, according to the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG).

In East Java, 14 regencies have declared a drought emergency status as thousands of residents struggle to access reliable water following a dry spell.

A severe drought has also dried up sections of the Ciliwung River that flows from Bogor in West Java to Jakarta. Over the past week, the dry riverbed has reportedly disrupted irrigation networks at the Katulampa dam in Bogor.

Climate and agricultural researcher Aris Pramudia from the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) warned that drought episodes may persist through coming months and further cut crop yields.

“El Niño years have historically triggered a nationwide drop in food production, though the impact varies annually,” he said. “This year, the sharpest decline is projected throughout the second half of 2026, which would be worsened by the delayed onset of the rainy season.”

The Statistics Indonesia has recorded month-on-month declines in rice production across three consecutive months between March and May this year, with April output plunging by more than 800,000 tonnes compared to the same period in 2025.

The downward trend is expected to worsen throughout the second half of this year due to escalating water crises, according to professor at Bogor Agricultural University Dwi Andreas Santosa.

“If the official data are accurate, rice production will definitely drop this year due to the widespread crop failures and water crises disrupting our food supply,” he said.

President Prabowo Subianto has touted a “victory” in achieving rice self-sufficiency in 2025 after domestic production was reported at 34.71 million tonnes that year, exceeding annual consumption demand of 31.19 million tonnes.

Speaking before a Cabinet meeting last week, Prabowo recalled this milestone by saying that Indonesia “had already achieved food self-sufficiency” while the world was worrying over food insecurity due to global turmoil.

“I’m confident and believe that we will become the world’s (leading) food hub,” he said.

The Agriculture Ministry did not respond to the Post’s request for comment. But the ministry recently said it has been expanding the use of irrigation pumps to ensure water security, while assuring the public that national rice reserves are at a “historically high level” and sufficient to meet demand until next year.

Published Date: July 30, 2026