Including cost and freight, Pakistan’s limited availability of rice poses stiff competition on cheaper container availability.

By Subramani Ra Mancombu

Indian non-basmati rice prices have increased over the past few weeks by over $18 per tonne in the global market due to the El Nino factor, but they are still the most competitive on a free-on-board (f.o.b) basis. 

However, on a cost-and-freight (CFR) basis, Pakistani rice is competitive, though the neighbouring country has only a limited volume of the grain for shipments.

The development comes amid projections that prices of rice have slim chances of declining over the next few months due to the El Nino factor.

“Though Indian rice f.o.b prices are lower than competing nations, on a CFR basis, it is $20 a tonne higher. Hence freight charges to Africa are lower,” said New Delhi-based exporter Rajesh Paharia Jain.

Chinese control

Freight is lower from Pakistan as containers are available at a cheaper rate from Gwadar port. “Most of these containers are from China and trade is almost a one-way traffic to Pakistan with exports being negligible. These containers are used to send shipments to Africa,” he said. 

On the other hand, container availability from Indian ports such as Kakinada, Kandla, Visakhapatnam, Tuticorin and Chennai is tight.

“Gwadar is fully under the control of China, resulting in quick loading and unloading,” said Jain.

Price outlook

This comes amid research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, raising its annual average prices forecast for rice. “Looking ahead, we expect rice prices to remain supported at $14.1/cwt and $14.3/cwt in Q3 and Q4, as concerns over a potentially intensifying El Niño keep a floor under prices,” it said. (CWT is a hundredweight that is 0.05 of a tonne).

BMI said over 80 per cent of global rice exports originate from South and South-East Asia, where El Nino-related weather disruptions are typically most pronounced. 

“Nevertheless, we believe sizeable carryover inventories accumulated during the 2025-26 season will keep prices from returning to historical peaks,” it said.

Domestic prices up

“Our prices are rising, but there is no parity because buyers still want rice at a lower price,” said M Madan Prakash, president of Tamil Nadu Agri Commodities Exporters Association. 

“We are exporting limited quantities to Vietnam. The price of domestic rice has increased from ₹30 a kg to ₹34,” he said. 

Domestic rice prices have increased after the South-West monsoon was 37 per cent deficient in June. Though the monsoon has gathered pace this month, it is still 15 per cent deficient.

As of July 24, the area was 2 per cent down at 234.43 lakh hectares. However, rice stocks with the Food Corporation of India (FCI) as of July 1 were 40.31 million tonnes (mt), besides paddy that can yield 38.74 mt of rice.

Hit in global tenders

Jain said currently, three global tenders for rice have been floated by Mauritius, Malaysia and the UN’s World Food Programme. “In all these tenders, we have been hit by the CFR rate,” he said.

Despite Indian rice prices being the most competitive on a f.o.b basis, a trade source said exporters in the country are not trying to set a price narrative. “We are at least $30 a tonne cheaper than even Pakistan. Is the quality of our rice bad than other countries?” the analyst wondered.

Jain said India can set a price narrative, but the industry was not united. “Some of the cash-rich big companies are looking only at volume and not prices. This is a problem,” he said. However, India will still retain its 42 per cent market share in the global rice market.

According to the International Grains Council (IGC), rice production in the 2026-27 season (September-August) is estimated to be 543 mt, down 3 mt from 2025-26. Consumption is expected to increase by 6 mt to 544 mt, while the trade will rise by 2 mt to 62 mt. Ending stocks are projected to be 2 mt lower at 195 mt. 

Published Date: July 30, 2026