Editorial Team 

JAKARTA – The National Food Agency (Bapanas) has confirmed that the Government Rice Reserve (CBP) stock is in very strong condition to face the dry season and the threat of the El Nino phenomenon this year.

Head of Bapanas and Minister of Agriculture, Andi Amran Sulaiman, revealed that the national rice reserve stock is currently soaring significantly compared to the El Nino period in previous years.

“In the past, during El Nino, we had a national rice stock of around 1.5 million tons. Now our CBP stock is around 5.2 million tons,” Amran said in an official statement in Jakarta, Thursday (23/7/2026).

Based on Bapanas data as of July 22, 2026, the government’s rice stock managed by Perum Bulog has reached 5.24 million tons. This figure recorded a drastic increase of 244.74 percent compared to the reserves before the peak of El Nino in September 2023 (1.52 million tons).

Workers transport sacks of rice at the government rice reserve storage warehouse (CBP) managed by Perum Bulog. (Dok-Bapanas)

Stock Surplus and Community Appeal

Seeing the abundance of national food stocks, Amran appealed to the public not to worry about the availability of rice during the dry season.

“The capacity needed during the dry season is usually around 3 million tons. While our stock is now 5.2 million tons, so there is still a surplus of more than 2 million tons. We don’t need to worry,” said Amran.

He added that the government’s experience in managing food supplies during El Nino in 2015, 2023, and 2024 has become a valuable capital in maintaining national food security today.

Distribution of SPHP Rice and Food Assistance

The government uses the abundance of rice reserves to maintain price stability in the market through two strategic programs:SPHP (Food Supply and Price Stabilization) Program: As of July 22, 2026, the government has distributed 507,75 thousand tons of SPHP rice (61.32 percent) of the total target of 828 thousand tons for the period March-December 2026. Phase II Food Assistance: Starting August 2026, the government through Perum Bulog will distribute food assistance of 997.2 thousand tons in one shot (at once) for the allocation of July-September to 33.24 million Beneficiary Families (KPM).

This intervention step has proven effective in suppressing the inflation rate. Data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) recorded annual rice inflation (yoy) in June 2026 fell to 3.98 percent (down from 4.55 percent in May 2026). On a monthly basis (mtm), rice inflation was at the level of 0.45 percent, which was considered very controlled.

Extreme Drought and El Nino Threat until 2027

This step to strengthen food stocks is crucial given the warning from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG).

BMKG predicts that the peak of the 2026 dry season will take place from July to September. The peak of the drought has an impact on:July: 83 Seasonal Zones / ZOM (12.26% of Indonesian land) August: 369 ZOM (48.84% of Indonesian land) September: 169 ZOM (25.41% of Indonesian land)

This year’s dry season is expected to be drier and longer. BMKG projects that the El Nino phenomenon has the potential to last until early 2027, with a moderate category intensity chance of 98 percent and a strong category of 62 percent.

Published Date: July 23, 2026