• India’s return to global trade intensifies price competition across regions
• Higher export prices, shifting demand trends impact Pakistan’s share

Pakistan’s position in the global rice market is facing mounting pressure as intensifying competition and shifting demand patterns weigh on its export share. The shift follows India’s return to international markets after easing export restrictions July 2023 to September 2024 , a move that has significantly reshaped global price dynamics across key importing regions.

Pakistan exported around 6.24 million tonnes (mnt) of rice in CY’24, which declined to 4.67 mnt in CY’25, marking a 25% y-o-y drop, according to data maintained by BigMint. The year opened with exports of around 0.55 mnt in January 2026. Earlier, Pakistan had benefited from India’s export curbs, which tightened global supply and allowed Pakistani exporters to expand shipments across several destinations. Strong harvests and steady demand supported the country’s growing presence in markets across Africa and Southeast Asia. However, with Indian supplies returning to the market, buyers have once again shifted their focus towards price competitiveness.

The widening price gap has emerged as a key factor influencing trade flows. Pakistani exporters are currently offering Super Basmati (steam/sella) at around $1,050-1,200/tonne (t), while Indian basmati varieties such as 1121 and 1509 (steam/sella) are quoted in the range of $950-1,020/t. The narrowing price differential has reduced Pakistan’s traditional premium positioning in the market, industry sources told BigMint.

Export volumes decline amid stronger competition

Pakistan’s rice exports have slowed amid the intensifying competition. Shipments have reportedly fallen, with basmati exports witnessing a notable drop as buyers shift towards more competitively priced origins.

The globalnon-basmati rice market is also seeing stronger participation from major exporters such as Thailand and Vietnam. Thailand ships around 8-9 mnt annually, while Vietnam exports close to 7-8 mnt, strengthening competition in the non-basmati segment where price-sensitive African markets dominate demand. Benchmark 5% white rice from Vietnam is currently quoted around $357-361/t, compared with $351-355/t for Indian supplies and $362-366/t for Pakistan, keeping pressure on competing origins and also narrowing its positioning in this segment too.

Despite the recent slowdown, Pakistan remains a key global supplier with exports typically ranging between 4-6 mnt annually, accounting for roughly 8% of global rice trade. However, sustaining market share will depend on competitive pricing, freight dynamics, and demand recovery across key importing regions in Africa and the Middle East.

Published Date: March 11, 2026