Industry warns of ‘tough year’ due to falling price competitiveness and US tariffs.

APORNRATH PHOONPHONGPHIPHAT

BANGKOK — Thailand this year is expected to export less rice than it has since 2021 as the strong local currency makes the country’s key agricultural product more expensive on the global market, according to an industry group.

“This year could be a tough year for the Thai rice industry,” Chookiat Ophaswongse, the honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, told reporters on Wednesday. “If there’s no positive factor to support demand, exports could be at 7 million tons this year. That could be the lowest in five years.”

Thailand is one of the world’s largest rice exporters, along with India and Vietnam, and the commodity is a critical component of the domestic economy.

Weaker exports would lower paddy prices, the value of unhusked rice, directly affecting the income of farmers. When Thai farmers suffer, softening their plight often becomes a government priority, with support schemes adding to budget woes.

Thailand’s rice exports rose for four consecutive years through 2024, partly owing to India’s rice export restrictions. But with India returning to the market in the second half of 2024 and the baht strengthening, export volume declined about 20% in 2025, to 7.9 million tons.

Chookiat expects a second consecutive year of decline, with the strong baht being a major factor. The currency appreciated about 9% against the dollar over the past 12 months and remains around a five-year high.

“The stronger Thai baht pushed Thai rice prices $20 to $30 higher per ton than our competitors, such as Vietnam and India,” Chookiat said, adding the appreciation has tightened financial conditions for exporters, particularly for products facing intense price competition and low profit margins.

According to the association, common grade Thai white rice this week is being quoted at $383 per ton on the global trade market, compared to $362 for Vietnamese rice and $351 for Indian rice.

Thai Rice Exporters Association’s honorary president, Chookiat Ophaswongse, left, and other executives speaks to the press in Bangkok on Feb. 25. (Photo by Apornrath Phoonphongphiphat)

Chookiat said another negative factor is falling demand in several markets, including the U.S., which accounts for about 10% of Thailand’s total rice exports. In January, Thailand’s rice exports to the U.S. fell 34% to 59,929 tons from a year earlier.

The U.S. imported 820,000 tons of Thai rice in 2025. Of that, some 600,000 tons were premium-grade fragrant rice, which is supplied to Asian restaurants. Other major export destinations for Thai rice include Iraq, South Africa and Malaysia.

According to the association, Thailand faced tariffs of 1% to 3% on U.S.-bound rice before President Donald Trump in August imposed a 19% “reciprocal” tariff on Thai goods as part of his sweeping levies against trade partners.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled last week that the “reciprocal” tariffs were unconstitutional. However, Trump switched to using another legal authority, Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, imposing a 10% temporary tariff on all countries, though that could rise to 15% on a per-country basis.

“The tariffs make Thai rice prices uncompetitive” in the American market, Chookiat said. “We expect overall Thai rice exports to the U.S. to drop by 15% to 20% this year.”

Published Date: February 26, 2026