By Khaosod English

Thailand’s rice exports fell sharply in January, raising concerns that 2026 shipments could hit a five-year low amid a strong baht and intensifying global competition.

Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said exports in January totalled 530,000 tonnes, down 17.5% year-on-year, with export value plunging 30.7% to 9.7 billion baht. Shipments are expected to average around 500,000 tonnes per month through mid-year as the sector faces mounting headwinds.

The association forecasts total rice exports in 2026 at 7.03 million tonnes, down 11% from 7.9 million tonnes in 2025, marking the lowest level in five years. Export value is projected at 130–140 billion baht, a drop of 12.3%.

Exporters cited five major risk factors. Chief among them is the strengthening baht, hovering around 31 to the US dollar, making Thai rice more expensive than competitors. Thai jasmine rice is now priced at about $1,200 per tonne, the highest in the world, compared with around $970 for Indian basmati and $800–830 for similar grades from Vietnam and Cambodia. Thai 5% white rice is also priced above key rivals.

Other pressures include temporary US import tariffs under Section 122, which impose a blanket 15% duty for 150 days, potentially reducing Thai jasmine rice exports to the US by 15–20%. The US is Thailand’s largest jasmine rice market, accounting for roughly half of total jasmine exports.

Global oversupply, including record production in India, import restrictions by major buyers such as Indonesia, and food security policies encouraging self-sufficiency are also weighing on demand.

Exporters urged swift formation of a new government and called for urgent measures to address currency strength, saying a weaker baht at 33–34 per dollar would improve competitiveness. In the medium term, they stressed the need to develop new rice varieties that match global demand and reduce production costs to prevent Thailand from losing further market share to regional rivals.

Published Date: February 25, 2026