MANILA – Inflation will continue to settle within the lower end of the government’s target despite the projected acceleration in September, an economist said.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation chief economist Michael Ricafort said inflation likely settled at 2.1 percent in September, higher than the 1.5 percent recorded in August this year.

The forecast however is within the 2 to 4 percent inflation target of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

Ricafort said the volatility in global crude oil prices due to increased tensions in the Middle East and other geopolitical uncertainties, as well as the impact of storm damage could lead to some transitory increase in food prices.

He said the government also banned rice imports from September to October 2025 to protect the incomes of local farmers in view of the seasonal increase in local palay (unhusked rice) harvests.

“However, this could lead to some upward correction in local rice prices,” Ricafort said.

He added that the latest PHP50 increase in Metro Manila minimum wage as well as in other regions could also lead to some pickup in the prices of affected goods and services in the coming months.

Ricafort, however, noted that despite the possible increase in rice prices, inflation will remain within the BSP’s target.

“Inflation could remain relatively benign and still below the BSP’s inflation target of 2%-4%, largely due to still relatively lower rice prices, which account for 9% of the CPI (consumer price index) basket due to lower tariff on imported rice to 15% from 35 or an outright discount of 20% and also due to lower world rice prices recently,” he said.

“Furthermore, world rice prices declined to new 5-year lows or since August 2020 in recent months, down from 15-year highs seen from July 2023-July 2024 with the end of El Niño drought in June 2024,” Ricafort added.

Published Date: September 29, 2025