Countries face delays and tariffs as Thailand’s rice market struggles to maintain its position.

Thailand’s rice exports have taken a significant hit in the first quarter of 2025, plummeting by 30% year-on-year to just 2.1 million tons, as reported by the Thai Rice Exporters Association. This decline, attributed to a combination of delayed purchasing decisions from importing countries and India’s decision to resume its rice exports, has raised concerns about the future of Thailand’s position in the global rice market.

Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the association, expressed that the current trajectory of Thailand’s rice exports could see them fall below the previously forecasted 7.5 million tons for the entire year. He noted that while the outlook appears grim, there is a glimmer of hope as exporters are beginning to receive more orders from the United States following a 90-day pause on the imposition of steep new tariffs.

“Exports in the second quarter are likely to mirror the first three months of the year,” Chookiat said, highlighting the cautious optimism among exporters. Thailand, recognized as the world’s second-largest rice exporter, faces the risk of losing this title if tariffs exceed 10%, he warned.

In a bid to address these challenges, a delegation led by Thai Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira is set to meet with U.S. officials in Washington this week, specifically during the week of April 22, 2025. The goal of this meeting is to advocate for lower tariffs that could provide a much-needed boost to Thai rice exports.

Last year, Thailand managed to ship 9.94 million tons of rice, valued at THB 225.65 billion (approximately $6.7 billion), with the United States being its third-largest market by volume. This significant drop in exports raises questions about the sustainability of Thailand’s rice industry and its ability to compete in an increasingly challenging global market.

Meanwhile, across the region, Taiwan’s export orders for March have also shown signs of slowing growth, rising by 12.5% year-on-year to reach $53.04 billion, according to the Ministry of Economic Affairs. This marks the second consecutive month of growth, albeit below analysts’ expectations of a 15.25% increase.

The growth in Taiwan’s exports has been largely driven by robust demand for artificial intelligence (AI) applications, yet it has been tempered by a noticeable slowdown in demand from China. The Taiwanese government is voicing concerns about potential geopolitical risks that could impact future performance, reflecting a broader unease in the region.

In a different sector, Iran is witnessing a revival in its handmade carpet exports, which have seen a growth of approximately 4% in value over the past Iranian calendar year, ending on March 20, 2025. Zahra Kamani, head of the Iran National Carpet Center, stated that the value of these exports reached $39.7 million, marking a significant turnaround after two decades of decline.

Iranian carpets were exported to 65 countries, with Germany, the UAE, Japan, and China emerging as the top four destinations, collectively accounting for over $22 million of the total export value. Kamani attributed this growth to the removal or revision of restrictive regulations and supportive measures implemented by the National Carpet Center.

She elaborated, “A new initiative launched by the Ministry of Industry, Mining, and Trade, alongside the National Carpet Center, aims to enhance the global standing of handmade carpets. With synergy in monetary and banking systems and supportive measures from relevant organizations, further growth in exports is anticipated.” This initiative is expected to bolster Iran’s position in the global carpet market, potentially reversing years of stagnation.

As these developments unfold, the interconnectedness of global trade becomes increasingly apparent. Thailand’s struggles with rice exports, Taiwan’s cautious optimism in the face of geopolitical uncertainties, and Iran’s renewed efforts to enhance its carpet export sector all highlight the challenges and opportunities that countries in the region face. Businesses must navigate these complexities to sustain growth and maintain competitiveness in a rapidly changing global landscape.

In conclusion, while Thailand’s rice exporters grapple with a significant downturn, other nations like Iran are finding ways to adapt and thrive amidst evolving market conditions. The coming weeks will be crucial for Thailand as it seeks to stabilize its rice export situation through diplomatic efforts and strategic planning, while Taiwan and Iran illustrate the diverse responses to global economic pressures.

Published Date: April 23, 2025