By Anbound, By He Yan

China is a populous country with a population of 1.4 billion, and food security is of paramount importance. Therefore, every year, the country’s No. 1 Document, an annual policy statement of the central leadership, is related to agriculture and rural issues. After maintaining a stable total grain production of over 650 million tonnes for nine consecutive years, in 2024, the total grain output reached a new milestone of 700 million tonnes for the first time. The main contributors to this increase are wheat, rice, and corn. Currently, overall supply and demand are balanced, and self-sufficiency can be mostly achieved. However, “self-sufficiency” is a very low standard and is far from equivalent to “demand”. In fact, “demand” is a much more realistic standard.

From the perspective of national food security, China is currently in the best period in its history. The strategy of storing grain ensures food security, but the unavoidable reality is that there are structural shortcomings in the agricultural supply system. Apart from the main grains, there are many other agricultural products, including grains, meat, vegetables, and other varieties, that require imports or complete reliance on imports to meet domestic demand.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, in 2024, the total grain imports for the year reached 157.53 million tonnes, a decrease of 2.3% compared to the previous year. Despite this, it is still the third-highest year of imports in history, following 2021 and 2023, when imports exceeded 160 million tonnes. The most noticeable decline was in the imports of the three main staple grains. In 2024, China’s wheat imports totaled 11.18 million tonnes, down about 8% year-on-year; rice imports were 1.625 million tonnes, down about 37%; and corn imports reached 13.76 million tonnes, down about 49%. Based on the production of the three main staple grains in 2024, the self-sufficiency rates for all three have reached over 90%. Specifically, the self-sufficiency rate for wheat is approximately 92.8%, for rice it is about 99.2%, and for corn it is about 95.5%. Therefore, China is largely self-sufficient in these three staple grains.

However, aside from the three main staples, the self-sufficiency rates for other grains remain low. For example, the self-sufficiency rates for barley and sorghum are quite low, and imports continue to increase. According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in 2024, China imported 14.24 million tonnes of barley, setting a new historical record, with a year-on-year increase of 25.8%. In 2024, China also imported 8.66 million tonnes of sorghum, with a staggering year-on-year increase of 66%. Of this, 5.68 million tonnes were imported from the United States, accounting for 65.7%; 1.95 million tonnes from Australia, accounting for 22.5%; and 1.02 million tonnes from Argentina, accounting for 11.8%. The self-sufficiency rates for these two grains are 17.6% and 18.8%, respectively, indicating that the dependence on imports for these varieties exceeds 80%.

In addition, China faces significant self-sufficiency gaps in agricultural products such as dairy products, cotton, sugar, oilseeds, and meat, which means the country remains relatively reliant on imports.

Comprehensive data shows that the self-sufficiency rates for agricultural products like dairy, cotton, and sugar are relatively high. In 2024, China’s production of dairy products, cotton, and sugar was 29.618 million tonnes, 6.164 million tonnes, and 11 million tonnes, respectively, while imports totaled 2.62 million tonnes, 2.62 million tonnes, and 4.35 million tonnes. Taking into account factors such as export volumes, the self-sufficiency rates for these products are all above 70%. However, this still indicates a gap of nearly 30% that is dependent on imports.

Among the imported agricultural products, oilseed crops represent one of the largest gaps. Oilseed crops, primarily soybeans, have the highest level of external dependence. China is the largest importer of soybeans globally, accounting for more than 60% of the global soybean trade, and it also represents the largest share of total agricultural imports. In 2024, The country’s soybean imports totaled 105.03 million tonnes, a 6.5% increase year-on-year, accounting for 66% of total grain imports. The main sources of soybean imports were Brazil, with 74.65 million tonnes (71%), and the United States, with 22.13 million tonnes (21%). However, in 2024, China’s domestic soybean production was only 19 million tonnes, resulting in a self-sufficiency rate of just about 15.2%, indicating a foreign dependency of over 80%.

Aside from soybeans, the import volumes of other oilseeds have been declining. China primarily imports sunflower oil from Russia and Ukraine, rapeseed oil from Canada and the European Union, and palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia. In 2024, China imported 1.09 million tonnes of sunflower oil, a decrease of 28% compared to 1.52 million tonnes in 2023. The import volume of rapeseed oil was 1.88 million tonnes, down 20% from 2.36 million tonnes in 2023. Palm oil imports totaled 3.67 million tonnes, a decrease of 35% compared to 5.64 million tonnes in 2023. According to analysis, considering various factors, the external dependence on rapeseed oil (including both pure oil and rapeseed imports) is 40%, meaning the self-sufficiency rate is approximately 60%. As for palm oil, domestic consumption is almost entirely reliant on imports, resulting in an extremely low self-sufficiency rate. Sunflower oil also has a relatively low self-sufficiency rate due to low domestic production, with the market largely dependent on imports.

In 2024, China’s meat imports mainly included beef, pork, poultry, and lamb. The national beef production in 2024 reached 7.79 million tonnes, while the total imports were 2.87 million tonnes. As a result, the self-sufficiency rate for beef is about 73%, leaving a gap of nearly 27%. Furthermore, other data shows that in 2024, China imported 2.91 million tonnes of beef and beef offals, accounting for 43.6% of total meat imports, indicating that beef is one of the meat types that China is relatively dependent on for imports. On the other hand, the self-sufficiency rates for pork, poultry, and lamb are all above 90%, although there were still some imports. In 2024, China imported 2.28 million tonnes of pork and pork offals, 405,000 tonnes of poultry, and 366,000 tonnes of lamb.

In terms of fruits, China is a net importer of fruits. In 2024, China’s total fruit imports amounted to 7.6871 million tonnes, a 2.17% increase compared to the previous year. The total import value reached USD 17.746 billion, a 5.25% increase. Among these, high-end fruits like cherries are mainly imported from Chile and Japan. In 2024, China’s cherry imports reached 451,000 tonnes, a 23% increase year-on-year. Durian is primarily imported from Thailand and Malaysia, with China importing a total of 1.5603 million tonnes of durian in 2024, a 9.4% increase.

Additionally, China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of vegetables. However, despite having a large planting area and high production volume, China faces significant external dependence in vegetable seeds. For instance, China almost completely relies on imports for certain high-end and specialty vegetable seeds, such as those for carrots, broccoli, tomatoes, and eggplants. Among these, seeds for high-consumption vegetables like carrots and spinach have an import dependency rate exceeding 90%. Nevertheless, overall, China’s vegetable trade is characterized by more exports than imports. In 2024, from January to December, China’s vegetable export value was USD 18.66 billion, while the import value was USD 1.05 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of USD 17.61 billion.

It is important to note that increasing investment in agricultural technology, promoting product diversification, and internationalization are currently the best ways to further improve the self-sufficiency rate of agricultural products and ensure national food security. However, agricultural production is constrained by both natural and market conditions. While China has made efforts to increase investment in agricultural technology and promote agricultural innovation, overall, the self-sufficiency gap in agricultural products reflects ongoing challenges in food security and dietary diversification, which may not be easily solvable.

Final analysis conclusion:

China has made significant achievements in food security, with wheat, rice, and corn, its three main staple grains, being largely self-sufficient. However, apart from these three staples, China still has a high level of external dependence on agricultural products such as sorghum, barley, soybeans, and vegetable seeds. These data indicate that, overall, China still relies on imports to meet domestic demand for agricultural products. Increasing investment in agricultural technology, promoting product diversification, and internationalization are currently the best ways to further improve agricultural supply rates and ensure national food security. Whether these policy measures will be effective remains uncertain and not exactly optimistic.

Published Date: March 26, 2025