The Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) has warned of a tough year ahead after lowering its export target for this year to 7.5 million tonnes, down from 8.7 million tonnes shipped in 2023.

Last year’s strong Thai rice exports were driven by high demand following India’s ban on outbound rice shipments, said TREA honorary president Chukiat Opaswong on Wednesday.

This year, however, India will resume exports and take back its position as the world’s top rice exporter, with shipments estimated at 16.5 million tonnes, he added.

“Thailand and Vietnam will compete for second place at around 7.5 million tonnes each, while Pakistan will be fourth with 5 million, followed by United States at 2.7 million and China at 2.2 million,” he said.

Chukiat said Vietnamese rice exporters have enjoyed a better start to the year after securing 400,000 tonnes of a 500,000-tonne order made by Indonesia in January. The rest of the order went to Pakistan and Myanmar, while Thai exporters secured no part in the deal.

Chukiat listed five risk factors for Thai rice exports this year:

1. Fluctuation of the baht, which is at a higher level compared with Vietnam’s dong.

2. Thailand’s lower rice output of 450 kilos per rai comparing with Vietnam at 970 kilos. Vietnam also has more varieties of soft rice to meet consumer demand.

3. Thai rice is currently US$30-40 per tonne more expensive than competitors in the global market.

4. The expiry of India’s ban on rice exports, expected in April or May.

5. The El Nino phenomenon, which could extend drought in Thailand and lower total rice output.

Published Date: February 8, 2024