As Vietnam celebrates its most successful year for rice exports, with nearly $5.8 billion in revenue, late-year price drops underscore the volatility of global markets.

A record-breaking year for Vietnamese rice

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), Vietnam exported approximately 9.01 million tons of rice in 2024, generating nearly $5.8 billion in revenue. This marks a modest 10.9% increase in export volume but an impressive 23.1% rise in value compared to the previous year.

The 2024 figures represent the highest export volume and value since Vietnam began exporting rice in 1989. Vietnamese rice continues to command a premium in the global market, recognized for its quality and ranking as the most expensive among the world’s top exporters for much of the year.

The average export price of Vietnamese rice in the first 11 months of 2024 reached $626 per ton, a 12% increase from the same period in 2023. However, prices have taken a surprising dip in recent days.

Price decline as supply pressures rise

Data from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) reveals that as of December 23, the price of 5% broken rice dropped sharply to $485 per ton. This is the lowest export price for Vietnamese rice since June 2023.

For the first time in months, Vietnamese rice prices have fallen below those of Thailand, with a $16-per-ton gap for comparable 5% broken rice. Prices for 25% broken and 100% broken rice also declined, reaching $458 per ton and $388 per ton, respectively.

Domestically, rice prices followed a similar trend. At the farm level, common rice is priced at 6,921 VND/kg, while warehouse prices stand at 8,100 VND/kg. Export-grade rice, including 5% and 25% broken varieties, has also seen notable declines.

Market dynamics and future outlook

Analysts attribute the recent price drop to increasing supply and intensified competition from India and Thailand. While demand for fragrant rice remains steady in key markets such as the Philippines and Africa, the market for white rice faces pressure from heightened competition and shifting policies in major importing countries.

Indonesia and the Philippines, two of Vietnam’s largest rice buyers, are expected to reduce imports in 2025. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto recently announced the country might halt rice imports entirely next year due to record-high domestic reserves of approximately 8 million tons.

The announcement has sent ripples through the market, causing Vietnamese rice prices to drop sharply despite expectations of tight supply until at least March 2025.

Tam An

Published Date: December 26, 2024