U.S. rice production hits near 40-year low amid declining planted acreage.

William E. Maples, Assistant Professor,Mississippi State University

USDA’s July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released July 10, projects U.S. rice production at its lowest level in nearly four decades. Total rice production is estimated at 153.3 million cwt, which would be the smallest crop since 1987.

Long-grain rice, the predominant type grown in the Midsouth, is projected at just 104.1 million cwt, its lowest level since 1993. The total rice production estimate was lowered by nearly 13% from the June 2026 WASDE following the reduction in planted acreage reported in USDA’s June Acreage report.

Total U.S. rice planted acreage is estimated at 2.02 million acres in 2026, its lowest level since 1972. Acreage is projected to decline in every major rice-producing state, with several states reaching historically low levels.

Acres by state

Arkansas is estimated to plant 851,000 acres, its lowest acreage since 1977. Mississippi acreage is projected at only 45,000 acres, its lowest level since 1961. Texas rice acreage is estimated at 113,000 acres, its lowest level since USDA began reporting state rice acreage in 1929.

Reduced acreage and production have substantially tightened the U.S. rice supply outlook. Long-grain rice ending stocks are projected at 17.7 million cwt for the 2026 marketing year, down 52% from last year.

In response to tighter supplies, USDA raised its projected season-average farm price for long-grain rice to $13.50 per cwt, compared with $10.40 last year. Although reduced acreage has improved the price outlook, profitability remains a concern for many producers because prices are still unlikely to offset high production costs.

Negative returns

In the Mississippi Delta, the nation’s largest rice-producing region, producers are projected to experience a sixth consecutive year of negative returns.

Recent USDA Economic Research Service estimates place the total cost of producing an acre of rice in the region at $1,411.

Production costs are up more than 12% from the previous year, driven largely by higher fertilizer and fuel expenses.

Based on the assumed 2026 price ($13.50 per cwt) and yield (80 cwt), producers would face an estimated loss of $331 per acre. Although these estimates will not reflect the circumstances of every operation, they indicate that many U.S. rice producers will continue to face a difficult profitability environment in 2026.

Source: Southern Ag Today, a collaboration of economists from 16 Southern universities.

Published Date: July 29, 2026